The price spread between CB and TRV has finally disappeared, as I predicted it would a few years ago when CB was about $10 higher than TRV. I see this trend continuing with TRV moving higher faster than CB. I'm not complaining; I own them both. Despite the fact that TRV now trades higher than CB, I still favor TRV for new money. This has been like a horse race in very slow motion.
You are right about TRV catching Chubb. First quarter earnings hurt Chubb and the stock has hit a wall. Since that was due to cat losses, all should get better after the 2nd quarter results. A good buying opportunity exists here, provided the entire market doesn't tank.
TRV continues to gain vs. CB. Looking back over the past year, the out-performance of TRV has been dramatic. I like the fact that CB is very conservative in the percentage of earnings they are willing pay out in dividends, but the yield offers very little incentive to buy the stock. The miniscule annual increases seem to be nothing more than a way to remain on the list of "dividend aristocrats." Without some appreciation in the stock, CB is really trying my patience. After many years of solid growth, CB seems to have hit an impenetrable plateau. Will it ever see triple digits?