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EXCO Resources Inc. Message Board

  • jamesboy1000 jamesboy1000 May 16, 2012 8:46 AM Flag

    Chk and nat gas

    Anyone think this volatile period of low nat gas, CHK plummeting along with many others is/was orchestrated? I saw Griffen at Citadel took a 5% stake in CRK, Icahn will be into CHK at $15. I'm sure GS and Jeffries will be major equity holders in new JVs with CHK

    They drive it down as deep as possible then use their money to place bets. Cash out later with OPM next year when gas is $5.00-/+

    Will be interesting to see other new money positions in gas co in next few weeks

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    • Quick glance at chart say's wait.
      It's on my screen though.

      Added HES today

    • just bot PETD.....looks cleaner, room on their credit facility + just issued 6.5mn shares to buy some new acres (at low ball price i hope)....stock got beat up with the new issue but looks decent....more HW to do but will add i think.....

      i don't think even 50c move in front NG is going to change things all that much...its all about managing BS/CF.....if we rock to $5 different story....

    • Quite a turnaround in UNG today

      Once the fate of CHK is known everything will go up or down --a lot. I'm betting up from these levels.

    • i'm with u but can't pull the trigger yet....major consolidation is going to occur and we are just starting....CHK feels like bear sterns to use your analogy..just the start...too many guys with balance sheets in shreds and others with the cash on the sidelines waiting...the banks have all the power with the secured revolvers.....I will take a shot with XCO sub 6 maybe as I think that is where value is even with a recap.....

    • Sell all tggt and do one JV---balance sheet issues cured

      Nat gas spot will be at 5 bucks end of this year. XCO at $10.

      If Chk gets shredded up which it probably will the landscape in US nat gas changes

      • 1 Reply to jamesboy1000
      • i agree that if the sell tggt and do the JV, and get say 850mn, then the balance sheet issue is cleaned up. But then you have a cash-flow issue since production will be < 400 (they loose 100+ in the JV) and they loose the 60mn+ ebitda from they will have to slash CAP-EX. Meaning that when the rebound in NG occurs, they are going to need capital to get at it.....very simple.....

        But you are right, if NG ends the year at $5 the XCO will be looking very pretty - I'd say > $10....but that is the bet you are making? Or is it the hot summer/cold winter trade?

    • that's life in the jungle, isn't it.....CHK is getting shredded....GS and JEF and in for the pickings...they'll earn 8% for now and then get equity in the new entity....I smell a run

      CHK is a worthwhile study....XCO is no CHK -> They will survive ><. But I am pretty darn sure that a dilutive preferred offering is going to be coming in 2013. Just no way around it. CAPEX is going to dive next year and then the wells that came to sales will begin to dry out in 2014 --- the only way to start drilling again, once NG prices begin to normalize (IF), is to get capital from somewhere....i see an 8% convertible (at $10pps) preferred coming....

      and don't tell me wilbur & co won't let it happen...he'll be owning the preferred!

1.17-0.06(-4.88%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT