....IEA Says Natural-gas consumption may rise 17 percent by 2017 from last year as demand surges in Asia and the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency. China's use of the fuel will double while Europe's will remain below the level of 2010, it said. Demand worldwide will climb by 576 billion cubic meters to 3.937 trillion, the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations said today in its first Medium-Term Gas Market Report. That's an average increase of 2.7 percent a year, which is similar to the growth during the last decade, the e-mailed report showed. Emerging nations will account for 69 percent of the gain.
that does not change the landscape for this year. You will need close to 4% demand increase to have a shot of not exceeding storage limits and that assumes a big cut in production (diy with EIA data freely available to the public). Barring a seriously hot summer, there will be pipeline pressures and curtailments starting in September. No question that in the long-run, NG will play a larger role....just a question of who will be there.
The production is being cut faster than projections and with the virtual cesation of all drilling the high decline wells are shutting in. In sum I doubt whether we even set a new storage record this year let alone overfill the depots.