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Albany Molecular Research Inc. Message Board

  • southside_mary southside_mary Oct 23, 2003 10:37 PM Flag

    Prediction

    Been following AMRI since June and like several things including comparatively low PE, PEG less than 1.0, and lots of cash in the bank. I also like that the short interest is ~20% of the float with only 14M shares in the float...prime for a squeeze.

    The market as a whole has been down last few days along with AMRI, but I think the drop in AMRI is being exaggerated by the desire to accumulate cheaper shares in advance of the earnings announcement on 11/4. Earnings are to be announced pre-market with a conference call at 10:00am. Bad news is more typically delayed till after market.

    For a forcast of what may occur, see price action in ISSX this week. Similar to AMRI in fundamental strengths and short ratio. ISSX eeked out a penny above estimates and gapped big time.

    JMHO. Good luck to all.

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    • Southside_mary said: "Stock prices are ultimately governed by large players like market makers and fund managers."

      I disagree. Ultimately, stock prices are govered by revenue and profit growth. If a company consistently grows both, in the long term, the price will reflect that. Funds are in control only in the short term, when the price frequently moves to one extreme or the other.

      Jag

    • Then you are probably the smartest one here!

    • Actually, all of my accounts are in cash right now including the IRA's.

    • Nice synopsis, southside.

    • Agreed. Stock prices are ultimately governed by large players like market makers and fund managers. These folks are under the same pressure that any other business manager is....investors expect good things every quarter. Morningstar, Value Line and other fund ranking services post percent increases every quarter, YTD, 1-year, 2-year, etc. When small investors who buy shares of these funds look at these ratings, their eyes are drawn to the biggest gainers, just like looking at Consumer Reports to find the best TV.

      IMO, it's really a war among professional managers to look good. Someone may know the exact number, but last I read there are 9,000+ stock funds (excluding bond and money market) competing for investment dollars. Amazingly, when you eliminate stocks that the fund manager will not or cannot trade (penny stocks, OTC, pink sheets), there are only about 5,000 stocks that fund managers can trade! So, 9,000+ managers all trying to show a profit chasing the same 5,000 stocks.

      Retail buyers like us are just along for the ride. But we play an impotant role to the fund manager who is trying to manipulate prices to hit the quarterly numbers. We're the herd that the manager is trying to get to stampede....either up, to capitlaize on our hopes by selling to us as the price increases, or down, to capitalize on our fear, by buying from us as the price plummets. The manager has most of the bullets...a pile of stock to sell (we probably each have at most few hundred to a few thousand shares of a stock like AMRI), cash with which to buy (how much free cash do you have to spend on stocks right now?), instant trade execution (we sell through a broker who has discretion as to when to execute our trade).

      What a country!

      JMHO.

    • Mary, you wrote,
      "I think the drop in AMRI is being exaggerated by the desire to accumulate cheaper shares in advance of the earnings announcement on 11/4."

      How can someone wanting to buy more bring the price down? Can you explain?

      I own stock, have bought it for clients and recommend it to many others.

      Sincerely,
      ---Laurent LaBrie
      http://www.liv-n-letliv.net/marketsoutlook.html

 
AMRI
14.33-0.14(-0.97%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT