Correct speculation. Your risk is the slow improvement in USD/EUR rate, moving from 1.42 towards 1.32, plus the liquidity hole created by FED closedown of QE2, plus the worsening investor mood by the sliding of realestate prices.
The above headwinds could be easily compensated by the expected good 2Q2011 earnings, the clear upgrade cycle by the analysts, and a surprise news of a good offer for the Insurance business.
Anyways, a careful hint from management toward a possible onetime extraordinary dividend payment of $5 from the income of sold Insurance Business would skyrocket the ING price toward $18-20 in short order.
They should get at least $20-25B USD for the Insurance. And clearly, by their own repeated claim, they do not need this money for BASEL III banking requirement.
So they should compensate their shareholders for the panicky dilution of 1.7B shares 2 years ago. Any opinion?