i read few of ur messages, i am pretty impressed with ur mathematical calculation, last yr i earned good amount on ING,STD and BBVA, wants 2 take some position, what u think the better entry point? thanks for ur advise
1. I consider the current EU crisis a great buying opportunity in core EU countries, particularly their banks.
Just imagine what will happen if Merkel+Sarkozy simply tells all other members: "You can stay in EU and you must behave according to our rules and agreements, OR you must leave today. And as long as you do not keep the Maastricht criteria, requireed to enter euro zone in the first place, you are suspended"
They are pushed by their voters to do just that.
The next day all shorts will run for cover, all core country markets jump 40% in 2 weeks. And those Euro-rebels and skeptics (budget liars, big spenders, socialists, etc) must seriously consider the consequences: foregn investment stops, no freedom to take jobs in Germany, no financial help from Brussels,...etc. And will vote for austerity measures in days, or face 50% drop in living standards.
I simply think M+S are not that far to say something like this. And the crisis in EU will be over.
2. The current price level of ING, DB, UBS, CS etc. are compelling. Their price already discounted a full EU blowup.
It might happen, but by 99% probability will not. But if some countries leave, the EU and euro will be only stronger. Do not trust the Soros-shorties kind of talk. Simply buy good value banks, but only if you can hold for 3-5 years.