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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

  • dogsandlonghorns dogsandlonghorns Feb 22, 2013 7:26 PM Flag

    Cash flow anyone?

    I know you guys hate financial analysis, but it won't kill you to turn on your calculators and do a little work.
    Capital spending has substantially exceeded operating cash flow for each of the last four quarters. Debt is high relative to equity, assets, and revenue. Will this company ever have any postive free cash flow?

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    • "Will this company ever have any postive free cash flow?"
      I guess you hate to do any analysis beyond the last four quarters. This company has been around a looooong time and most of the years have been cash flow positive. Last year, they increased capex significantly in order to transition from being overweighted towards dry gas production to more liquids production. A good chuck of that was to build out the infrastructure in their eagle ford acreage. If you listened to their conference call (or read the release), this transition had capex front loaded (last year) and they are reducing capex in 2013 to around $400 million - which should be about cash flow neutral. Even so, they are projecting slight production growth in 2013 and production growth to accelerate in 2014. IF they can execute on this plan (and oil & NG prices don't crater), then they will be cash flow positive AGAIN within a year.

      As I stated in a previous post, click on the SFY chart and select the "max" timeframe for the chart. You will see that SFY was down at these levels 4 or 5 times since 1995 and each of those instances was a good time to be buying. Is now a good time to be buying again? Can't tell for sure (as with any company). But, my analysis says that it has a good chance of being successful, IMO.

    • About 25 years ago I was starting a business and I had negative cash flow for many years because I kept investing in the business. But value was being built regardless.
      I even took on some credit card debt for a very short term. Back then, they didnt charge cash advance fees.

      I never needed debt after that one time but even if i did it wouldnt have meant the business was worthless.

      That could be the case here, no ?