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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

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  • zebra887 zebra887 Jun 7, 2000 6:26 PM Flag

    Noon news just reported that...

    NG looking toppy how could that be, impossible,
    go to your room, Maxwell says, "NG to the

    Look at the chart..

    78 the injection number a
    little higher than market participants were hoping for
    as demonstrated by the TANK in NG prices.
    Fortunately, so far, SFY and other NG issues didn't seem to
    notice. Watch out if she break's further. This item has
    to steady up. Next thing we'll hear is that it is
    snowing in New York in June....or that temperatures are
    unseasonably cool. Plus $4 seems hard to hold....78 on the
    injection numbers????? Tomorrow we'll hear how "unfriendly"
    that number

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    • A 78 only means that they are falling behind at a
      slower rate. They are still falling behind.

      didn't take advantage of all the features of the site.
      Click on "Advanced Opinion." Here's the

      *Short Term Indicators Average: 40% - Buy
      Term Indicators Average: 75% - Buy
      *Long Term
      Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
      *Overall Average: 72% -

    • 78 was more than the high side
      most traders
      had figured on seeing.
      Highside was supposed to be

      87 has been the last 5 year average.
      It was 91
      last year same week.

      We closed at like around
      for July and below $4.00.
      Yes, this is unexpected,
      and something to watch.

      I think we'll be in a
      trading range
      between maybe $3.85 and $4.25 until

      we see some hot weeks and storage
      back down less
      than 50 bcf.

      Don't believe anyone is going to
      this down below $3.80 which is a downside pivot, but
      we'll see.

      Am also hearing that its not all just

      cool weather and some increasing gas supplies that
      allowed us to get to 78
      today. Some industries which
      are traditionally huge demand are converting-- if
      they can to resid,
      and some Ammonia plants have
      shut down production because of their economics--that
      may be 600 mmcfpd
      on its own. So there is a real
      industrial impact being felt and
      some interruptible or
      sensitive customers are already in

      Believe we'll work back up to $4.25
      and $4.50 range
      over the next month
      but maybe not without some
      tests on the $3.80 threshold---there cash
      supporting it for next day delivery, and that has not

      North American Supply is down 4 BCFD
      and power
      demand is incrementally
      1.5 bcfd year to year growth
      projected each year forward.
      So, if shutting down some
      puts a little more gas in the cavern
      on a ONE TIME
      BASIS, there is no
      more to give in that area after

      July 4th I expect to be above $4.00
      just because
      capitalism is what
      America is about and people will want
      to keep cool while they light firecrackers.

      still expecting natural gas supply
      to be tight and
      storage to be lacking

      Anyway, I hardly expect
      Swift or any
      other NG producer to suffer
      at $3.50/mmbtu, and that might actually be
      politically more expedient anyway--We'll see.

      Taylor what Swift's earnings
      are at $3.50......then
      redo all
      my conversions and add that to
      stock price based on $3.50 gas.
      Watch the commodity
      but understand
      it is going to be extremely
      Much more volatile on an hourly
      and daily basis
      than the securities.
      Supply imbalance is now
      magnifying normal volatility up and down as they should.

      Hang 10, keep the AC on,
      and jets on