NG looking toppy how could that be, impossible, go to your room, Maxwell says, "NG to the moon".....
Look at the chart..
78 the injection number a little higher than market participants were hoping for as demonstrated by the TANK in NG prices. Fortunately, so far, SFY and other NG issues didn't seem to notice. Watch out if she break's further. This item has to steady up. Next thing we'll hear is that it is snowing in New York in June....or that temperatures are unseasonably cool. Plus $4 seems hard to hold....78 on the injection numbers????? Tomorrow we'll hear how "unfriendly" that number was.
78 was more than the high side most traders had figured on seeing. Highside was supposed to be 75.
87 has been the last 5 year average. It was 91 last year same week.
We closed at like around $3.95 for July and below $4.00. Yes, this is unexpected, and something to watch.
I think we'll be in a trading range between maybe $3.85 and $4.25 until
we see some hot weeks and storage back down less than 50 bcf.
Don't believe anyone is going to sell this down below $3.80 which is a downside pivot, but we'll see.
Am also hearing that its not all just
cool weather and some increasing gas supplies that allowed us to get to 78 today. Some industries which are traditionally huge demand are converting-- if they can to resid, and some Ammonia plants have shut down production because of their economics--that may be 600 mmcfpd on its own. So there is a real industrial impact being felt and some interruptible or economically sensitive customers are already in turmoil.
Believe we'll work back up to $4.25 and $4.50 range over the next month but maybe not without some tests on the $3.80 threshold---there cash is supporting it for next day delivery, and that has not changed.
North American Supply is down 4 BCFD and power demand is incrementally 1.5 bcfd year to year growth projected each year forward. So, if shutting down some industrials puts a little more gas in the cavern on a ONE TIME BASIS, there is no more to give in that area after this.
July 4th I expect to be above $4.00 just because capitalism is what America is about and people will want to keep cool while they light firecrackers.
I still expecting natural gas supply to be tight and storage to be lacking
Anyway, I hardly expect Swift or any other NG producer to suffer mightly at $3.50/mmbtu, and that might actually be politically more expedient anyway--We'll see.
Ask Taylor what Swift's earnings are at $3.50......then redo all my conversions and add that to a stock price based on $3.50 gas. Watch the commodity but understand it is going to be extremely volatile. Much more volatile on an hourly and daily basis than the securities. Supply imbalance is now magnifying normal volatility up and down as they should.