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SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF Message Board

  • meegu1 meegu1 Jul 23, 2007 1:21 PM Flag

    Double Bottom on XHB?

    A new 52 week low - is this a double bottom? I am amazed that the selling continues. Hopefully the conference calls from the homebuilders are more positive than the street is expecting. Sentiment sometimes can change on a dime.

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    • Looks like you got your wish. Now down 13% from your entry.
      Not sure where the bottom will be on this, sub $20 for sure though. I'm hoping for the $15-18 range by EOY or Q1 08' to cover and go long.

    • what market is he watching? umm, the one that uses MATH as the basis for determining the degree of price swings. at the time of yer post proclaiming "all the bad news was priced in" the price was 27.11. the low yesterday was 24.47. do the math and you come up with a 10% (actually 9.7%) dip....


    • You morons with your double bottoms---there's a fucking housing disaster and the effects have just begun to be felt. XHB is headed much lower. You have to be a grade A schmuck to buy this thing here. Wake up and smell the coffee.

      • 1 Reply to miss_pristine_081
      • You guys are in denial (sorry for the harsh words).

        Yes, there will be a relief bounce -- time to buy puts. In the short term, home builders face the following issues:

        1. Yes, unemployment is low but loan requirements are changing. Given the subprime issue how many potential homeowners are actually qualified?

        2. Who will provide financing for the home builders projects?

        3. What happens to the home builders if they are unable to sell enough units to provide a decent return on equity?

        Please provide intelligent feedback.

    • homebuilder sentiment declined again this month from an index of 28 to 24....

      unless they mislead the analysts, i can't imagine they'll be any more "positive" than they were last quarter..

    • Very beaten down....I may be early, but I went long today on XBH. The housing inventories may take a while to work down (especially in speculative regions), but employment is good and the 10 year treasury rate is below 5%. XBH has some stocks which may respond ahead of the general housing market in areas such as home improvement, carpeting, furniture and the like.

      • 2 Replies to speakupbebrief
      • ETFs are strange. They go up fast before the housing market recovers and no one knows when to get in. They go down to a certain point and then up again. It is just hard to time them but maybe buy some at every opportune drop in price. That is the only way to get in. My bet is 24 is the low because housing always go back up as human population continue to grow on this limited earth.

        Land is limited but population growth is not as one can see the hispanic population will grow to 25% of the US population within the next 10 years alone and they normally have 3-5 kids. Imagine the homes people will be competting for? Home prices will probably double again in the next 10 years. So, conclusion is everybody is trying to get into the housing sector but are just waiting for a bottom. A bottom that is hard to find. Average down is the best solution. As I said before, the sector somehow goes back up so fast even one year before any sign of good news. That is how the market works I guess so that common investors never able to get a good bottom price in this stock market.

36.3499-0.1901(-0.52%)11:20 AMEDT