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SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF Message Board

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  • ben9471 ben9471 Jun 24, 2010 3:26 AM Flag

    Why nothing can fix housing

    Its the prevailing theory in the mindset of most Americans. That is that we all should own a home that is at the route cause of the problem. Then there is the massive amount of oversupply in most market, some of them large planned urban developments. US consumers assume that 30 year fixed rates loans are a right. So, when FHLMC and FNMA are put into liquidation and can no longer create or origianate new loans (we have spent $145B to date and could spend another $150B if we let the governemnt continue the idea that we have to own a home and have get 30 year fixed rates loans), the only place to go will be your local bank or thrift. Because the supply of loans will dry up, the rates will be higher. So, you have two many homebuilders building unncessary homes that can't be financed with 30 year money at some point in the not - to - distant future. I don't know when it will happen, but yesterday's price action again shows that people think that we need homebuilders in their present form building more and more homes. Yes, it was a large surprise to me that the prices of the builders went up yesterday. I can only hope that more sensible minds will prevail today and realise how bad the situation really is.

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    • It's really the notion that we should make easy money from house ownership, and I'm not talking long term investment. Many Americans got into houses because it was cheaper than paying rent, or so they thought. Many others thought they could use their homes as an ATM. Others tried to play the housing bubble; look at all the new TV shows on flipping houses.

      We lost the notion that home ownership is the reward for success, instead, we now believe that home ownership is the way to success.

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