Well, I sure was wrong about the way the stock would react yesterday. That said, I will be adding shares over the coming couple months.
HTCH is down because Hutch mgmnt made confusing and contradictory remarks about the number of ships it will take for profitability and when they will get there. It also seems as if that number has crept a little higher than we were lead to believe from previous ccs. I think they are being more cautious in light of the manufacturing/assy/operation snafus they had in the just reported quarter. They did themselves no favors by not giving us ANY details on what all happened. I understand the need for secrecy in this cut-throat competitive incestuous industry but, give me a break, say something so we know you actually have a grasp on things.
The good news was the status of quals, some of the programs ramping, the expectation of 25%+ market share a year from now, and the words "modestly profitable" coming from CEO lips. But what the f does modestly mean? More confusion for us. So typical of the drive industry, plays right into the hands of the hedgies and flippers and shorts and traders.
My hope is that as they enter the Oct 1 FY, they give firm guidance on ships, revenue, and EPS.
Well said, I totally agree the cc was a mess with that said I still think htch will get its day.I was hoping it wouldn't take so long, but it will be worth the wait.at least now they are mentioning the word profit, if they keep ramping up Thailand one of these quarters they are really going to surprise us with a positive earnings report and a great cc.I still believe in the turnaround it is just taking a little longer then anyone expected. I believe management is being honest with us and I am confident they will prevail. The way wdc and stx keep doing so well , it has to help htch soon.glta
What "doing well" at STX & WDC translates into good for HTCH? Unit shipments are down at both. Part of their improved numbers is about leaning on a supply chain that is headed to more and more consolidation. In fact, there are rumors that one or the other of the HDD guys have hired a leading consultancy to define a strategic supplier consolidation. Hutchinson volumes trails competition by a factor of 2. Magnecomp shipped 190m units and about the same , for NHK. So are you thinking DSA transition will save the day? 70% of Magnecomp's shipments in CQ2 were DSA while they were just north of 40% of NHK's output in the same Q. HTCH is the third man out with blindingly lower volumes. Look, I love to be a bull. I love to find turn-around stories, and momentum stories. But there simply isn't one here. HTCH is heading towards an asset sale unless their BOD gets serious about M&A ASAP.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I agree about the number creeping higher. Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought just a quarter or so back they were saying 108 M was breakeven. Now 130M is moderately profitable. Hard to get a good read on just what they are saying.
HTCH is dead man walking!
WE saw this bounce as a great opportunity to increase OUR short position!
WE were right!
You buffoons were all wrong!
WE will drive this DOWN, and investors will LOSE!
And now, get the HELL OUT OF HERE!
Sentiment: Strong Sell