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Celgene Corporation Message Board

  • rob_cos rob_cos Dec 28, 2012 12:49 PM Flag

    Cheapest bio out there. Half AMGN/BIIB PEG even on conservative ests....

    2013 and 2015 ests way low and even with those this is stupid cheap. As I have said for over a yr - 2015 EPS will be over $10 a share. Growth rate will be 25% which should be the PE. Vastly undervalued.

    New ISI - PEG is 0.6 vs 1.3-1.4 for AMGN & BIIB. 2015 CELG PEG on #'s that still need to be raised (which lowers PEG more) is 0.4 (less than half AMGN & BIIB)

    CRAZY CHEAP EARNINGS GROWTH - TOUGH TO BELIEVE BIG PHARMA IS NOT LOOKING AT THIS POST APREMILAST AND PANCREATIC CANCER DATA. We are basically trading where we were 2 wks before the amazing Pancreatic cancer data came out. Also had amazing ASH data that sparked the rally, Ph 3 melanoma that stunned people meeting its endpoints and 3 Ph 3 Apremilast trials with biologic ACR 20s when Apremilast is taken alone early before dmard. Ph 3 Psoriasis data in my opinon is the most underrated trial CELG has run - that should come by next week. PsA 4th Ph 3 (ALL MONOTHERAPY) also will be out soon. Added this dip in IRA.

    Based upon ISI 2015 EPS ests which DOES NOT INCLUDE CHINA OR MEXICO OR BRAZIL for Revlimid, Abraxane in Pancreatic Cancer or Pom sales based on Ph 3 not 2 approval,VERY low Apremilast sales – CELG is trading at 0.4 PEG ratio. And that is with an UNDERSTATED growth rate and in my opinion an EPS that is at least $1.50 light. So it’s really .25-.30. NO ONE IN THE ENTIRE S&P 500 AND IN ALL of BIOTECH IS AT THIS GROWTH AT THIS DISCOUNT.

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