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Celgene Corporation Message Board

  • rob_cos rob_cos Dec 28, 2012 12:51 PM Flag

    CELG has at least a DOZEN near term catalysts

    1) Apremilast Psoriasis Ph 3t op-line data this month/very early jan - imo one of the most underestimated trials in CELG history.

    2) Apremilast PsA Palace 4 Ph 3 trial-the first all Monotherapy/dmard naive trial is similar to biologics (important as the first three Ph 3 PsA trials showed amazing safety profile and biologic like ACR 20 scores in a this SUBSET but this is first Ph 3 where entire trial is Monotherapy). Imagine biologic like ACR 20s for an ENTIRE TRIAL on top of the 3 Ph 3's that showed great monotherapy subsets so far.

    3) ASH continues to sink in despite retracement of gains - they will come back – Pom Ph 3 MM-003 late breaker, NHL, MM-015 update – 250 presentations and posters. Once we get some of the other catalysts, the depth, breadth and quality of the ASH data will be even more important.

    4) Pomalidomide approval – coming early likely in Jan but could come at any time. Company is ready to launch immediately imo. 2013 sales and eps accretion.

    5) China Approval of Revlimid in relapsed/refractory MM - late 2012/early 2013

    6) Other international approvals or pricing okays in various countries – Brazil, Mexico, Russia, So Korea etc

    7) JP Morgan conference - CELG once again kicks off the most important healthcare conference (formerly H&Q) in San Francisco at 8 am Pacific Mon Jan 7 – will be positive imo both 2013 guidance and forward. Analysts missing generic vidaza, RLI duration increases, international, pom sales light, share count heavy in their models.

    8) Stem Cell Crohns data – where oh where is the Stem Cell data?

    9) DETAIL of the amazing Ph 3 Pancreatic Cancer trial in San Francisco at the 2013 Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium Jan 25th.

    LBA #148: Randomized phase 3 study of weekly nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine versus gemcitabine alone in patients with metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (MPACT) ( A8 )
    Daniel Von Hoff - Virginia G. Piper Cancer Center at Scottsdale Healthcare/TGen

    10) MM-020 – the largest front line myeloma trial in history Rev-Dex versus Thal-melphalan-P which should have interim look – interesting will be if thal MP arm has more SPMs than Rev-Dex. If this data is really good on the first interim look we could sprint to $100+ as front line EU approval post CHMP debacle is the only reason we are not in the 90s right now imo and the reason we have not been fully paid for the amazing Abraxane and Apremilast news (Bernstein says in the report I posted this month this will be a very positive catalyst that will unlock not only front line stock value but also a pent up catch up run for Apremilast, Abraxane and Pomalidomide - which results should have us much higher if it were not for MM-020 pending update - make sure you read that report).

    11) EMEA Revlimid MDS approval this month

    12) A likely Hugin appearance on CNBC (Cramer tweeted he is trying to get him on - he usually goes on when asked) maybe after imminent psoriasis data and/or pom approval.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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