Its so tough after a run like this to figure out where this is going. I always try to think after runs like this what the bears could hit us with. Near term there is not a lot of catalysts - the possible positives this yr could be huge - there could be a couple of smaller negatives near term. So if anyone is thinking of adding calls - make sure you go out to October.
Short term its pretty clear the Q1 Revlimid numbers may be a bit high. Analysts never took them down despite the company disclosing the very real $100 million Revlimid currency issue disclosed at JPM (would have been a negative but was overshadowed greatly by the stunning 2017 guidance. Will anyone care now that we have other drugs hitting it and I believe EPS will beat nicely. Analysts are saying the generic Vidaza I said yrs ago would not come as early as people thought, might finally happen this yr. That could come out of nowhere - but company only has 2 quarters in guidance without it and so that is about assured since we didnt hear yet. An announcement would hurt the stock briefly - as this is a nice windfall each quarter that can cover up shortfalls elsewhere. It looks like company will have MM015 this quarter but we will not hear about it - that trial scares people because bears always seem to find something they like in it and it was the source of the worse SPM issue. But to me there is a better chance it is a positive. But its unclear when we hear - might not be until ASH although I hope sooner. MM-020 is now pushed to maybe September - to me this is great news - as this makes it much more likely that we have positive data - but this is the biggest catalyst (some see it as a binary event)- now likely 6 months away. I think we could be over $130 on this data if positive. The EPS could be great. But we have to wait. There are many other positive catalysts coming - heck we might even get an authorization item to increase shares in the proxy - hinting of a split? The May 6th R&D meeting
Full post didnt post..... The May 6th R&D meeting will be more important than people think.
VERY short term I am a little cautious that on this Friday CELG and the market may have peaked for the next week or so - Friday's seem great - and Monday's not so much - S&P got very close to my 1550. Heck it might make it to 1565 or so - but I am a little cautious that a pullback may come - and it won't last but its overdue. How many days in a row can a market and CELG be up? Still the "going from one billion $ a drug to five billion $ a yr drugs" theme I have talked about for 2 yrs now is a virtual certainty now. The "Indication and International expansion and industry high GP% and industry low tax rate" thesis is playing out and will do so even more so next 2 yrs. Stock is still cheap on a PEG basis. I just post a little caution near term - only because I have been getting a series of emails and PMs that people are loading near term calls and adding trading shares - that makes me cringe a bit. Core shares or LEAPS I guess ok, I am looking to add 2015 LEAPS if mkt takes CELG down. The future has never been bright, but if you are adding here I am not sure near term items are best. I still see $200 by 2015 and $300 plus by 2017 - so I would hold every single share you have and lock it away forever. Just very near term - the emails and PMs I am getting make me a little worried. I was telling everyone to buy trading shares and LEAPS and calls in the 70s, 80, 90s. Perhaps its not time to buy them now -- I took my near term calls off today. I don't expect that 100+ Dow future indication to hold. Even mega bull Cramer just said "Take your profits and go home"