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Celgene Corporation Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z Apr 24, 2013 12:01 PM Flag

    Start of a correction?

    With Q1'13 earnings round the corner (April 25th), it is good to remember the 2012 earnings. The growth in revenues (~13.7%) and net income (~10.5%) for the full year 2012 was good. For Q4'12, on a YoY basis, the revenues grew by 12.7% but the net income declined 36%. Even sequentially, there was a decline of 38% in net income to $263 million. For the full year 2012, REVLIMID contributed 68% to the sales (revenue of $3.767 billion), while Abraxane ($427 million), Vidaza ($823 million) and Thalomid ($302 million) chipped in. This high dependence of one drug is the main strategic risk for the company and the investors. The price target for the company has been increased by analysts to $143 ( Deutsche bank), on the back of hopes of success of other drugs like Apremilast (psoriasis & psoriatic arthritis). Its research on cancer drugs continued with good progress in the Phase III trials of Abraxane (pancreatic cancer). Cancer research is a very competitive field with big and small companies actively involved in intriguing research. Senseco Technologies (SNTI) has a drug candidate SNS01-T for multiple myeloma. SNS01-T has given great results in recent trials. CELG has to continuously endeavor to reduce dependence on REVLIMID by bringing out new products. When patents of such major contributors expire, the revenue deficit is very difficult to fill up. The declines are pretty fast as generic drugs flood the market almost immediately. Management guidance for 2013 is for revenue of $6 billion with REVLIMID contributing $4.1 billion. As per the guidance,the GAAP diluted EPS is expected to rise 41% to $4.67 to $4.79 in 2013. For CELG, declining sales of Thalomid is also a matter of concern. The immediate future of the stock is, however, dependent on the earnings. Since the current valuations are getting a little stretched, negative surprises can start a correction to $116 (50 DMA) or deeper.

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