650M = 400 cap ex and 250 Utica expansion (Shale scale of 250K - 180K on hand - 70K at 3.5 per = 250M) .., ~50M at 12-31 , 150M warrants if sh price can stay above 9.5 . In crease debt with Y/E redetermination and 6-30 redetermination , guesstimate of 150M ; EH self-funding debt inc of 100M ; Asset sales of 400M at .50 (GE said net was .75 to .60 but i am est .50 to account for his exuburance and actual sales price being less than 400M. That gives us 650 with a lot of ifs. For once I'd like to see GE surprise everyone on the upside.
I just read the CC transcript finally, and I'm much less worried about the cash situation that some of the people on here. The company is working on increasing its borrowing base now, which will likely happen by April, so that will be one avenue to access capital. They are also in talks about a JV in Washington County (likely with PDCE, APC, or AR since they are all close) which would bring in some cash, as well as the continued asset sales. Cash is tight, but I think an increase in the borrowing base and a quick sale of some of the "dogs and cats" will be enough to get the company though to the summer, when a couple more Utica wells should be coming online.
Largely a fair summary picture on total dollars. GE can hold off on acreage acquisitions if need be, and he has some EBITDAX cash flow to fund part of MHRs needs, but he needs a lot of the total dollars NOW, which is why he is going to have to make some quick sales at distressed prices AND hit the capital markets with either new shares sold or warrants called or both. At least that is how I see it.
There was a good chunk of cash in accounts receivable (20 mil i believe), so that should have been collected between the end of the year and now, I would think. They're spending too much too quickly for sure, but if they manage to make a sale or two and then connect all the wells they're talking about by April things will improve.
On a side note I'm beginning to think these assets would be better in the hands of a larger company. AR is the closest neighbor with the size to do a deal easily. Just a thought.