I'v enjoyed holding Clearwire stock over the last few months. For two reasons. One the stock now has a new bottom around $8 a share. Two, the stock is going to climb quite nicely as we move into the second half of 09. Its obvious to everyone, (except shorts) that Clearwire's best days are a head of itself.
For starters Wimax wireless broadband coverage works. Actually works well. The overall feedback from users in Baltimore, Portland, Atlanta and Las Vegas is very positive. Next Clearwire has a massive city by city rollout scheduled planned over the next 24 months. I won't try to name all the major cities that will offer Wimax coverage. Belive me though, its impressive.
Speculation a year ago was that Clearwire would have to go it alone, or could run out of cash before it got off the starting block. Oh how things change. There has never been a new company with a supporting cast like Clearwires'. Google, Intel, Comcast, Cisco, TWC, Samsung, just to name a few. They are all heavily invested in Clearwire, because they know Wimax works and their is pent up demand for wireless broadband service. In and outside the home, as well as the business side. We're talking a multi-billion dollar market, that can only grow over time.
After Clearwire's CC, "shorts" will claim clwr burn rate is to high or not enough customers have signed up for "Clear" service. Who give a rat's ass. Expansion is the name of the game. Growing from a little start up company, to a major player in telecom. Growing so fast that in a couple years, Verizon and AT&T mighty just see a major threat to their monopoly. If the government doesn't act first and cut them down to size.
Just think. Right now Clearwire is buiding a massive infrastructure by using state-of-the-art wireless technology to transmit signals to Clearwire customers. Using licensed and protected frequencies only Clearwire controls. We're talking a very impressive spectrum holding. Towers are now being placed throughout major metropolitan areas to offer the masses, super fast mobile internet. At bargin prices.
Then there is the "first to market" lead Clearwire has over the competition. Clearwire has a two, three or four year lead over competing companies, depending on who you talk to. When ever LTE evolves, it will meet stiff competition from Clearwire and its partners. Personally I see both services living in harmony, though right now Clearwire has a significant advantage. Its building market share and receiving good PR in the process.
So don't be surprised if "shorts" on this board pop up on August 11th or 12th and claim the Sky is Falling on Clearwire. Nothing could be further from truth. Clearwire my friends is growing everyday. Getting bigger, gaining more customers, increasing its coverage within the U.S. and abroad. Its a stock to own now and hold for the long term. Since it's going to reach new heights come 2010.
You read it heare first.
I think we could see $9 by Friday. Marekt still wants to run, while clearwire shows great promise going forward. Friday's job numbers might weigh on market, but overall I see Clearwire moving back to the teens. All Aboard.
You believe CLWR is different but look at the messages coming out of XM in 2004:
"XM Adds Over 1.8 Million Net Subscribers In 2004, Ending Year with Over 3.2 Million Subscribers; 2004 Revenue Hit $244 Million, Up 166 Percent over 2003".
And Hugh Panero, XM's CEO added these glowing comments:
"XM had an outstanding 2004," said XM President and CEO Hugh Panero. "XM ended the year with more than 3.2 million subscribers, extending our lead over the competition to two million subscribers compared to one million a year ago; ..."We plan to build on this momentum and execution in 2005 and end the year with 5.5 million subscribers, furthering our market leadership position."
XM had 6 times more paid subscribers than CLWR has today and they still failed!
They failed not because of lack of subscribers but the inability to charge each customer enough for the service to cover their massive CAPEX and OPEX. And weak gross margins are an early indicator of a flawed business model that will not succeed at any scale.
And it still remains true that no company has ever built a financially successful nationwide data-only mobile broadband wireless service.
CLWR has not yet proven otherwise.
Contrary to what some may think, investing is not a juvenile contest between 'shorts' and 'longs'.
<After Clearwire's CC, "shorts" will claim clwr burn rate is to high or not enough customers have signed up for "Clear" service. Who give a rat's ass. Expansion is the name of the game. Growing from a little start up company, to a major player in telecom. Growing so fast that in a couple years, Verizon and AT&T mighty just see a major threat to their monopoly. If the government doesn't act first and cut them down to size.>
Not just 'shorts' but serious investors of all stripes will look into the bottom of the cup to divine from the scant tea leaves what the future of the company will likely be: the early indications of how well the emerging spate of services is faring will start to be seen in the subscriber numbers. Financial and industry analysts pay a good amount of attention to analysis of subscriber and specific service profile numbers: subscriber gross net adds/losses, ARPUs, revenues broken out between voice, messaging, broadband, and the various types of service contracts. Amount spent on capital expenditures and comparing that to other networks and revenue growth. And trending all of these.. the tea leaves that give an indication that if similar trends of spending and subscriber revenues are replicated across broader swatches of population and an increased spate of services and partnered services that xyz will be the likely result.
Nuts on dweeb stock boards put things as a simplistic 'we good, we long'.. 'they bad, they short': Intelligent investors sit back and weigh the inputs and outputs, trends and unfolding of the business plan with technology as an important but not exclusive theme. Then they decide to put their or the money they manage at risk being long or short.
When the results come in the market will weigh them, sometimes the market reacts without filtering the information properly one way or the other.
Expansion without profit was the rallying cry of the dot.com bust. Just like you're saying now.
Remember Teligent, Winstar, Verticalnet, WebVan, PurchasePro and on and on. The typical line promoters of those company's promoters gave to those that questioned their vodoo economics was "they just don't get it". Ignore the financial reports, ignore the pathetic gross margins, the churn, the spend rate and forthcoming dilution/debt.
What you offer is more of the same. Hype without fact.
Financials always matter.
Sanddollar - You can't see the forest for the trees. Tell you what. When Clearwire hits $15 a share by the end of the year. I'll buy you eye glasses. I should be able to afford it then since my investment will have doubled.