The information about a post 2012 deal between CLWR and Sprint, so far, is saying that Sprint will commit to using LTE on Clearwire's network beginning in 2013... but that sprint doesn't plan to infuse capital into CLWR.
By my reasoning, what company would commit to using something that still requires $600 million to build...
... without having a very strong indication that the funding for it will be there?
The inference is... that sprint KNOWS how it will be funded... and for me, a pretty good assurance that it WILL be.
Why not sell franchises in cities where an operator could private label the service and provide roaming access and also benefit from nationwide roaming access on the clear network? The provider could put up the towers and pass through Sprint and clear customer traffic for a fee. They could sell the service locally under their own retail brand.
Unless something goes terribly wrong with S, your analysis is spot on Spok. The question now lies with how Hesse manages to capitalize on the IPhone commitment. Hope he has some hidden cards under his sleeves....
... for example, who's to say Sprint's change of heart wasn't tied to something like apple deciding they would develop an I-phone for TD-LTE before they develop it for FD-LTE in order to exploit the Chinese market ahead of the US market?...
... if they did such a thing, they'd have exposure to 3 times as many potential customers and they wouldn't cannibalize as many existing, 3G apple subscribers as they would stateside. Of course, that's one of dozens of possibilities that could be an undercurrent in the sprint/CLWR negotiations.
My point being... there's much more going on than is made public but we can certainly speculate based on what's known...
... and what John Stanton does with his stock based on what HE knows.
WRONG. The obvious error of your conlusion is that the proposed MOU with CLWR so far is non binding and remember S made a deal with light squared whih does not even have a built network and FCC approval is very iffy given its intererene and financing problems and that deal too can be cancelled at the end of the end of yr if LS does not get FC.C approval. Just shows that S is willing to make potential deals on a spec basis and it is in their interet to do so so far
All these if scenarios are pretty much meaningless until to talk about time frame and where data congestion occurs. Sprint will not have enough capacity either for the short or the long term. Mid-term 2013-2015 or so time frame may shape up that they have enough capacity. However, there are distinct types of needs that vary by sub density, usage type, and competitive landscape and how the operator goes after it. If Sprint or other partners want to pursue a competitive strategy that stresses a more cost conscious value proposition, similar to the approach metroPCS has used to gain a modicum of success, or stress 'unlimited' broadband compared to the chief competitors Verizon and AT&T, then Sprint and some others cannot compete with their current line up of spectrum outside of Clearwire.
Once again, all spectrum is not created equal: operators currently and increasingly will need a range of spectrum that suits various purposes and that takes advantage of the characteristics of the spectrum. The 2.6GHz spectrum will get used progressively over the next decade+. Clearwire has capital needs that put it into jeopardy as a current investment. Sprint and other operators have more than one spectrum alternative but they all can benefit from a well managed use of the 2.6GHz broadband expansion band if delivered on reasonable terms. For now, Clearwire is vulnerable regardless of 'big picture'.
... for it NOT to happen. The concern for anybody had to always be Sprint's support and now it looks like they have that. That makes the capital raise a virtual certainty, IMO... even if they go with their ultimate backstop... a spectrum sale...
... which I doubt, because their spectrum holdings, in light of the exponential growth of spectrum demand, is their marquee asset. Not just because of industry growth but just look at how much "volume" CLWR processed in Q2 vs Q1... a 72% increase on their network in just 1 quarter.
... the capital they need to do it alone in the wireless world (eg: sprint, PCS, leap) but dish and the cables have the capital and they're watching the meteoric growth of wireless.
As a wholesaler, they would like that CLWR is competition-agnostic and that only $600 million provides 132 million POPs of TD-LTE... if 2 or 3 of them got together on it, that's miniscule compared to the cost of buying spectrum or building a network so I have few concerns that it'll happen if sprint commit's thru 2015 or 2017 and assures that the bulk of CLWR's 9.6 million subs aren't going far.
except that texting revenue was generally counted as data revenue, and is now being cannibalized. All carriers face a challenge in finding how to really monetize data. I think the tide has turned here w/ moves like S $10/mo add. We'll see if it is enough to offset the loss in text revenue. Next may come a charge for real time video aka netflix and even possibly youtube.