..beyond what they had offered Clearwire previously and was rejected. This offer, barring unknown details that change what it appears to be to a significant degree does not look all that great for Clearwire. In essence, nix on the idea that they entered into a bidding war. This looks right in line with what Sprint has offered, not a large premium. Discounted for the fact that Ergen only wants the cherries picked coverage areas that attune to the Saks Fith Avenue real estate but only offers a price that is only slight higher than the whole enchilada that includes far less desirable coverage areas that Sprint has agreed to take as well, the DISH deal is equally for a chump-changed future.
The USA is getting more dependent on our allies than at any time since WWII. The Pentagon now lists the threat of economic calamity as the number one threat, ahead of nuts in turbans wielding vehicle bombs or even nuclear threats.. because if our economy falls apart what is there to say about keeping tract of nuclear and other threats? That is a left-of-field issue but weighs into how the FCC, DoJ and Congress are disposed to look at the situation... as beggars with their hands held out who also want to see the country not head into a different sort of anarchy.. a return to the Baron age in which a few dominated major industries to the point of people ending up in body bags/cement goulashes. If you don't think that some well respected liberal to conservative think tanks aren't thinking to this radical extreme, you would be wrong.
China is going to grow as an economic, political and military power almost 'if they like it or not'. We will hold Japan, Germany and other close allies even closer than in past decades, particularly when the equation is money being sent in our direction.
Besides that, we need Softbank as among the better of Japan and Asia's leading technology enablers to help create a third leg of competition that is more vital and survivable. Clearwire is mince meat even with DISH, the wee little new entrant that also wants to play in the big leagues of converged markets... to take on challenges that Clearwire failed at rather woefully. Two newbies with limited resources. Resources include the whole picture of capital, marketshare (or such a disproportionate market advantage to overcome it), time and technology used skillfully. DISH is a new kid in the wireless arena that will use the same technology as everyone else... only they do not have anything like Softbank and Sprint's combined capabilities.
You make it all out to be so simple.. put DISH and Clearlybuggered together and you have a proper mix. If they had more time and a few other partners, maybe. If this bid causes others to chime in with equal or better "we just want your Steak for a Hamburger price" offers, then maybe the sum of the parts will equal more than the individual chump change dealings.
The DoJ and FCC have given no indications that they are looking at this deal other than as being viable. What I have thought that might and appears to be shaping up to happen is that the FCC and DoJ will take a cold hard look at the spectrum licenses and perhaps will be inlined by the confluence of circumstances to segregate a portion to be used by other operators. However, this is one heck of a messy situation starting with the nature of the spectrum licenses and sub-licenses. The first inclination was probably to just allow it to slide through without much figuring out how to carve out portions, auction of somehow cause them to be transferred in an organized fashion. A lot of guessing so I'll leave it at that...
The major deal, however, is likely to move forward imo. Softbank's Son has limited options ... I frankly do not see any similar to this for reaching the goal of becoming number 1-2 global operator. SB's situation in Japan is good but limited for growth.
He has put himself in a win-win situation. Sprint now has to respond to him. The FCC knows he wants the spectrum and most likely will demand some divestiture if the SB-S deal goes the through. If there is a bidding war and the price goes high enough for CLWR, SB might not have the money to buy all of CLWR. SB might then walk away from the deal. S then tumbles. One less strong competitor for DISH. If CLWR goes into BK, as you've stated. Dish can then be the white knight. S might also make a side bar deal with Dish to get them to go away and use the S network... I see very few bad outcomes for DISH as compared to S.
AT&T could top The Dish bid not because they want Clearwire but in order to make Son who is very leveraged sweat and eventually run out of the ability to borrow more. That scuttles both takeover attempts and leaves Sprint out of the big league. China Mobile could make a bid just to keep a Japanese company in the rapidly expanding mobile communications industry just as a tit for tat in their dispute with Japan. Remember China buys US debt. They could make threats and win a bid. To look good among the American public the FCC in that scenario could compel a sale of some excess spectrum by Clearwire. The more entrants in the bidding war the more complex it gets and the more it gets dragged out with FCC and congressional hearings. Meanwhile Sprint is held up in it's attempted catch up game with the two telecom giants. Clearwire shareholders win. They get a higher price. Ergen and Dish win because they will get the spectrum they want. Son pulls out and the $20 billion along with it. Sprint stock drops and Hesse goes running to Dish for a partnership that is if Hesse has not by then gotten booted out. The whole SoftBank Sprint Clearwire for peanuts deal bites the dust. Son and Hesse just are not as smart as they think they are.
I really don’t mind you taking different sides of the discussion based on which way the wind blows TR, but if you are watching for misinformation on the boards, you should not use the common misunderstandings of the technology in your comments. There is no geographical area or real estate associated with any particular spectrum in this case…as you chided some poor fool in one of your posts in the past...remember, no lines in the sky, no boundary or actual wires or pipes in the sky? You want to suggest the leased spectrum is not as easy to use...well ok, you can say that and I would simply say it is no hardship for a carrier to manage.
“This looks right in line with what Sprint has offered, not a large premium.” Ok 11% probably cannot be considered a premium of any kind at this share price, however every additional dime over the $2.97 price can represent tens of thousands of dollars or more for the smaller retail investors, so unless you would like to begin sending out differential check yourself, stop suggesting $3.30 is not important or only slightly higher.
I’m glad to see Softbank enter the U.S. market as competition will always make everyone better in the long run, but Softbank is not a savior, they are a predator using predatory buyout pricing and have a puppet surrogate doing their bidding by the name of Hesse.
I agree Clearwire is probably done as a company, “ Clearwire is mince meat even with DISH” so how can you possibly also say the DISH deal guts them and puts their future at risk…what future? You play both sides a little too much sometimes.
Your comments are often thought provoking, but please yield on the goofiness.
You are correct in that capitalism is toast and the USA is on the verge of fascism where government encourages industrial monopolies and unions will only be found in history books.
On the topic of the dish offer,it looks like charlie and "Son" cut a deal with the terms charlie has proposed.The lower the buyout price that dish pays for clwr,the better deal/rates that sprint will get to lease the spectrum(76% of clwr capacity)which Dish does not want.
DISH will at most, imo, come to agreement with SB-Sprint that makes use of Clearwire's acquired assets. That could look like a major partnership or a framework agreement that can build into further collaboration and perhaps a merger down the road. I think the FCC and DOJ would be more concerned about DISH+Sprint+Clearwire+Softbank acquisition/merged entity because that would be viewed more as being anti-competitive rather than pro-competitive. For a few years it looks like the goal will be to support DISH/satellite license holders becoming mobile-video operators to add to competition and, likewise, to go along with SB's acquisition of Sprint and take out of their propped up surrogate Clearwire to enhance the distant third string mobile convergence operator. A few years from now its likely to see another round of consolidations to occur that may see DISH, DTV SB-Sprint, T-Mobile and others consolidated into just two-three competitors against Verizon and AT&T.
The FCC is meagerly supportive of a different type of diversity through innovation that occurs at the fringes of the BORG industry: The FCC allowed Wi-Fi to occupy junk spectrum and is now opening up about 150MHz of additional 5GHz spectrum wasteland for 802.11ah.. throwing the open innovation markets some more scrapped to the bone scraps off the table. How gracious an admission that truly open technology markets work best... not.