Please see my message yesterday explaining this: http://finance.yahoo.com/mb/CLWR/#mbt=Understanding%2520%25u2026&mbl=http%253A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fmbview%2Fthreadview%2F%253B_ylt%253DAvrnvoZ.MsSEsUSn5Of5ErfeAohG%253B_ylu%253DX3oDMTB2Y252cDRkBHBvcwMxOQRzZWMDTWVkaWFNc2dCb2FyZHNYSFJVbHQ-%253B_ylg%253DX3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-%253B_ylv%253D3%253F%2526bn%253D0dee4477-acda-352b-81a4-4f30a7ecdd44%2526tid%253D1361886887973-3a1b70ee-dea2-4bb2-bfe1-931a418b0c43&mbtc=mb-tab-topic
As the process continues of quietly buying up shares on the open market way below market value there is a good reason why they hold the stock at these levels. Holding the stock above the Sprint offer of $2.97/share:
1) Causes retail investors to eventually capitulate and sell thinking they are getting a better price than what the eventual end will be.
2) Prevents new buyers from buying the stock above the Sprint offer and losing money
If the price was below the offer of $2.97 retail investors would simply hold until the deal goes through to get the full value. Depending on how far below the Sprint offer the stock trades, there would be investors buying guaranteeing a return on their investment once the deal goes through.
Volume however tells us quite a lot and when the next move will be made by the group that is in collusion to give this company away at the very lowest price possible. Once volume begins drying up it indicates that the retail holders that are going to finally capitulate and sell at these levels have already done so. When this occurs I would expect a significant offer to be put on the table by Softbank. An offer above $6/share would be a significant enough offer to win the political power necessary to get this deal done.
1) The institutional investors would approve a deal above $6/share as this is more in line with the value of the spectrum holdings Clearwire holds.
2) The government agencies reviewing this offer would be forced politically to give a nod of approval in light of the significant offer price increase. This would force their hand into approving this or face the public outcry of the government standing in the way.
Folks try to think of this in terms of a chess game. What we are seeing unfold is a well-orchestrated set of events that must occur to get things done both politically and publicly. Initially offering such a low share price and then holding the price on the open market above it has benefited Softbank by allowing them to buy shares very cheap. Once they finally raise the offer above $6 the number of shares they will then need to buy will be significantly less than they would have had to originally purchase had they come out in the beginning with this offer.
We are now reaching the point of volume drying up, so I would soon expect a significant announcement soon to be made.