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The Western Union Company Message Board

  • redheadinvestor May 2, 2013 10:57 AM Flag

    Walkdowns: How this is working

    From time to time, the MMs walk the price down so funds can continue to accumulate shares advantageously. This is what generates the unusual volatility amid the clear upward trend. This is again happening today. The shares have been walked down to the pre-release peak; they'll get walked down past that if the MMs can manage it.

    What matters is the trend, not the volatility. There are two ways to make money here: Buy and hold, or trade the volatility. I don't have time to daytrade, I have a real job, so I just buy and hold.

    The walkdowns also help the buyback, giving the company more chances to take shares off the table more cheaply. You can bet that WU treasury watches closely and a S&P 500 company has a friend somewhere in the markets. With $700 M to distribute to shareholders in 3 quarters and at least $210 M of that in dividends (dividend won't be cut, and it's about $70 M per Q), that's $490 M in buybacks or $160 M per Q on average (probably a bit more now and a bit less later). If the shares rise unexpectedly and stay high (hasn't been the pattern so far), the dividend always can be raised to substitute for buyback.

    Restoration of earnings to $250 M per Q (currently near $215 M) and a share count of 550 M shares, which will eventually be reached or bettered under already expressed management statements (using round numbers here) is EPS of over $1.80 per year which is about $20 per stub at an 11 multiple. Since the market trades between 17X and 18X, 11X is a fairly conservative assumption for multiple expansion from 9X as growth returns and management delivers. Headlines and spin can change very quickly especially when the news was never very bad to begin with.

    Meanwhile, enjoy your dividends and capital gains, longs. You found a good investment and you deserve the results.

20.00+0.01(+0.05%)Oct 21 4:03 PMEDT