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FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated Message Board

  • AmandaBRecundwith AmandaBRecundwith Aug 3, 1999 10:46 AM Flag

    Legal Opinion

    Collusion is entirely legal, as long as it's done
    in an open and democratic forum such as the Yahoo!
    message boards, which are currently being scrutinized by
    the SEC for varous permutations of fraud. [This
    opinion has been brought to you by the firm of Dewey,
    Cheatum, and Howe. Please look us up, Mr. Bells, or better
    yet, RUN & HIDE!!]

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • good point I forgot to highlight. Look at the
      sheet. Only about 40% of debt (16% value of ocmpany) is
      rate sensitive. Now I admit that Libor plus a weighted
      average of about 190 bp is about 40 bp higher than I
      think they shout be getting, but it point to the lack
      of vulnerability on the expense side to rising rates
      (plus libor is short term and thus even less volatile).
      Conversly a sustained increase in rates will allow for very
      modest room rate hikes > renovation cost hikes. Do I
      think that this will lead to higher value for fch, im
      not so sure of that. What I am sure of is that this
      is not as rate sensitive as many other reits which
      hold higher rates of indebtedness and a lower
      percentage of fixed rates. All in all, my point is that this
      is NOT a rate sensitive stock.If the street treats
      it as such, better for all who have a few bucks to
      throw in.

    • Tigger has hit the nail squarely. FCH is a play
      with mid to long potential, and a great portfolio of
      properties AND debt at very good rates. If the Fed raises
      rates, it adds $2-3/share to the value of FCH.
      I see
      $27.5 - $30 in Sept. 2000 and thats Y2K compliant..!!!!

    • <EOM>

    • Here's what i gleaned from the conference call
      and results:
      1) dividend is very much stable and
      not an issue. With payout rate as loww as it is, no
      risk of cutting back on that out of necessity and they
      still more than meet expenses without having to break
      into the till. On the flipside, hey almost scoffed at
      the notion of raising the yield to get "the streets
      attention" or convince shareholders of their ability to
      pay..the CEO said he would if he thought that was the cure
      all but given the lack of pricing for the current
      yield, doubt it would help.
      2) He did not suggest a
      cure overnight...very commendible. He felt the issue
      would remain one at least a year. (Id personally like
      to see a slow exit from dallas...not just 6 hotels
      nationwide being sold).
      3) No LOSS in revPAR. Flat was
      worse case scenario. That means no loss of cash, no
      loss of div...just loss of a whopping 35 growth.
      4)
      downward revision for year of 6%...okay, not happy, but on
      the otherhand not bad.
      5) No increase in debt
      level expected soon.

      all in all, this is a
      compelling price (coming from a guy who bought a signif
      batch at 16 7/8). The company has some local issues
      hampering overal growth, as one would expect in such a
      boheamuth reit...but still on very stable footing. Very
      underextended (making this not at all problematic) with a solid
      sheet...even looking out 9 months. The yield is attractive and
      secure. I think a buy here will give you 13% yield in a
      year and a good chance at price appreciation
      conservatively pegged at 15-20% in 12 months. Downside is
      minimal here and would indicate further buying opps.

      If you want a hotel reit that is sidestepping this,
      but offereing a yield of 12%, look at wxh. Of coures
      their teh MC is too low to ever get what the company is
      worth except under the most golden of circumstances
      industry wide, but has good sheet, good managament, good
      hotels, y = 12% abd discount at around 25%.

      Good
      luck to all in your investments. I thik a sell here is
      the exact opposite of what is prudent. I think a hit
      of 25% is an overreaction. No cure overnight, but a
      medium term play with a nice gain in the end for a non
      tech stock and very little speculation
      required.

      (long fch,wxh,ras,wavx,hp ; recently sold icmi,nbr,ibm)

    • According to the conference call their basis for
      2000 predictions is based on industry numbers, not FCH
      speculation.
      Neither did they try to pump up any optimism.. certainly
      not in Texas where they believe 2000 will be a tough
      year also. And exactly when did FCH credibility become
      an issue. The first quarter meet their expectations.
      The second quarter didn't, and they quided down FFO
      when they reported second quarter results.
      Its my
      opinion that FCH is a quality company with excellent
      propects and trades at an attractive multiple..and how
      about that 13% dividend.

    • As I posted yesterday I jumped in at 16 7\8 when
      it looked like the bulk of selling had been
      done.

      There is more to be done yet, don't look for a pop up.
      We are going to have to have more stock change hands
      first. Then we can start to grind
      up.

      TBill
      RIA,CFP

    • an account with Paine Webber. Litt pulled the
      plug on you guys and he's probably the most respected
      REIT analyst. Instead of continued speculation about
      the reasons for the decline a copy of Litt's report
      (probably not prepared yet, but will be shortly) should be
      obtained and the highlights posted.

      I don't have a
      position as I sold out about a year ago but I've followed
      this board infrequently for a year. The one theme I
      have noticed is that FCH management seems to have
      always been overly optimistic about the future. Seems
      like it's happenning again...see slowness the next
      couple of quarters but next year looks good.

      How
      in the world can anybody predict what will happen
      with occupency next year? Yes, they obviously have
      fairly reliable estimates of the properties they'll have
      renovated by then but fill rate and occupency?? And based
      on an earlier poster's remarks missing occupancy by
      a few percentage points hits FFO hard.

      My
      guess is there is a credibility issue with management
      right now and you won't see the Litt's of the world
      upgrade until they actually see the numbers
      improve.

      Just the opinion of a distant outside and former
      shareholder.

    • for the conference call number.

    • FORMERLY known as Reitman.

      The bombshell
      in the call as previously stated was the slowing of
      Revpar growth. 1 point drop in Revpar is 12 cents in
      FFO.
      99 FFO will come in 24 cents less than anticipated.
      Texas overbuilding is a big problem.
      2000 should
      see 3% Revpar growth which could jump FFO 36
      cents.
      A 6 percent drop in Revpar (not going to happen)
      would put the dividend at risk.
      Stock buyback has
      been and will continue to be considered but with major
      renovations still ongoing, no real free cash flow for 12
      months.

      Personal opinion: If this is as bad as it gets (a flat FFO
      year) then the public markets have done their job of
      flattening out the boom and bust cycle.
      Obviously I had
      no knowledge of this news and took a big hit today.

      Hopefully Reitman and Tonto will ride again!!!

    • Have you heard the conference call yet. Please
      give us your take. Are you still long? You said you
      like FCH and MHX. Warning Bells has been right all
      along. But he never substantiated basis for his
      comments.

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FCH
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