Hmmm...buy now?!?, at around $16+ with analysts' price target of $14 and other sites (link attached) reiterating a range of $15 or lower? - (aside either you don't know or care the kind of distribution cut will be made around May) - Then let's put all "your" eggs on this one & Good Luck on your Bottom call!
When I sold at 20.40 after buying at 26, i thought it was just the wise thing to do. I kind of had a target of 14.50 to get back in based on my guess that the div wouldn't be cut by more than 50%. I couldn't wait and got back in at 15.93. Now I am thinking about getting out again because the March quarter has to be terrible. My guess is that the board is going to knock at least a dime off of what I thought, and probably is, a sustainable dividend. It's a crap shoot. My guess is that when the div cut is announced th price will settle to yield about 9.5.
I am going to hold the middle level position I have now and buy more if the div comes in under .30. This has been the worst season I can remember for propane. If next year is just mildly warmer than normal they will have a great oct-march stretch.
As far as their balance sheet goes a first year accounting student would know that the GAAP rules for acquisitions makes for some crazy debits but has no bearing on the earning power of the company and from a write off perspective is no different that depreciating plant and equipment.