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Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Comm Message Board

  • beatendownthensum beatendownthensum Feb 24, 2011 7:38 PM Flag

    Take a look at the options....My take

    I noted last week, when the offer materialized, that someone had sold an awful lot of puts (that would become worthless) the day before. In other words, someone knew. My sentiment, or "take" on it, if you will, was reiterated in a news story a few days ago, mentioning the same selling of options.
    Yesterday and today, I noted that someone is piecing together a massive bull spread. We're not talking mom and pop here. We are talking a major player; probably a hedge fund.
    Bottom line, and without boring you with the details, someone today is buying major calls, and is paying for them by selling massive puts (yesterday).
    Someone with a lot of money is betting that this deal gets done. In my opinion, they think it gets done above $60.
    Just my take.
    Good luck to all in this filthy racket we call the stock market.

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    • Where do you get the information? i know you can see the volume and open interest, but where do you see if it's one person buying and selling. thanks for the info.


    • I agree.

      It would be interesting to see how FDO would have traded without the mini correction the overall market has been in.

      Anyone long FDO from last week is up big after the Peltz announcement and probably looked to take profits where they had them. Similarly, the mini correction flushed out the weak hands who had bought after the Peltz announcement.

      I actually bought at 53.50 and sold at 52.50 and have been buying back in on each dip below 50. I also bought some NDN in the low 16's yesterday and today.

      I think in the short term one of two things will happen:
      1) Peltz makes another filing showing that he has increased his stake in the past few days.
      2) WSJ or Dealbook report that a PE firm or two is weighing a rival bid to Peltz.

      Peltz strategy is no different than Icahn's strategy with MENT. I wrote about it the day Peltz announced the deal. There is no way that he will buy the company. He put the company in play with the $55 bid and hopes that another bid emerges in the 60-63 range.

      One of these days FDO will spike back up to the 53-54 range and then it probably sits in that range for a bit pending news.

    • I saw large trades of about 4,400 contracts in the April 42 puts and 47 calls. is this what you were referring to?

      I am long FDO. I say 67-74 is the takeout.

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