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  • togmundus2003 togmundus2003 Jun 26, 2008 12:11 PM Flag

    Why is SABA @ $3.00?

    Seen a couple of concerned emails of late. Here are my views

    On the + side I see SABA with:

    2 quarters of profit and no additional guidance for the next quarter - i.e. a 3rd quarter of profit.

    a market that looks less vulnerable than others (lots of education clients)

    a product that looks more attractive as travel gets more expensive

    a business model that has successfully transferred from a license model to a rental one

    a potential takeover target

    On the - side

    The shares have dropped a lot - but on miniscule volume - no buying or selling!

    Overall market sentiment refelects concerns about a recession or even a slump

    I am thinking its stock market sentiment that's the problem not the comapny ..... any alternative views? Any news of this quarter?

    PS will proabbly buy again if it drops lower than $2.75

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    • Bought some at $2.83 and $2.81, but only got 25% of what I wanted at those prices. Did not get home for market open and so I missed out.
      Best wishes to all the shareholders!


    • Falo, Argo

      Thanks for your constructive input - sounds like they were just under guidance.

      Like you guys I think it seems very good value right now - and I am likey to make one more buying foray if the price dips by much.... but then thats enough exposure in my portfolio.

      If I see anything in the numbers I'll post it.

      Any ideas on the geographic split of revenues (US & non US would be good)?


    • I think it's a great value at this level. But the company always seems to trip up in some way. You have to make your guidance fairly consistently for any of the houses to give any respect with their coverage. They never seem to be able to do it.

      The houses are fickle as it is. You can't give them more gristle.

    • From the conference call it appears the the outstanding international sales were booked in early Q1. SABA continues to have positive cash flow and non-gaap earnings. There was talk of a possible stock buyback...quite frankly there was little change in guidance or outlook for SABA.
      If the stock does drop below $2.85 I'll be a very willing buyer, otherwise it's just another great little small-cap that I'll continue to hold.
      I continue to believe $3.00 is a steal, but I have enough invested in SABA in a bear market...there are other great buys in this market.
      Best wishes to all the shareholders!

    • Unfortunately, that's why they are at 3 dollars. Botched sales execution internationally. Give me a break.

    • Stock market sentiment is the way I am betting although there is no doubt that SABA will be affected by the coming recession. Nevertheless, I am not good at macro economic predictions so I just buy at what to me are giveaway prices.....started buying on May 8(average is $3.56) and really have not stopped since. Bought some at $2.94 and $2.92 today through my margin account.
      There just are no bottoms in a bear market so I've set up a chart that forces me to buy more as the stock next buy is $2.85 and on down in $0.10 increments. If stock goes up I won't buy anymore.
      Unless I hear something negative I'll continue on down until the next conference call and then reacess.
      Best wishes to all the shareholders...hang in there!

8.810.0000(0.00%)Feb 13 3:59 PMEST