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Illumina Inc. Message Board

  • blutribe27 blutribe27 Jan 30, 2012 8:21 AM Flag

    Entire acquisition could fall apart given

    poison pill status taken by this board and management...seems like they are more interested in protecting their jobs rather than shareholder's interest. stock alread trading above offering price of $44.50, if deal collapses...we could see 28-30 in 1 day selloff

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    • <<I just hope the shareholders believe that.>>

      Unless Roche prevails in its proxy fight to get a majority of the BOD, it really does not matter what shareholders think, since the poison pill prevents Roche from buying any shares under its tender. Accordingly, until the pill is redeemed by the BOD, no shareholder will even bother to tender.

    • I believe that's close to what ILMN's management is thinking. I'm guessing they believe Roche is better suited to take their technology to the diagnostic lab/street corner but that eventually that’s where it will be no matter who's at the wheel. I think management knows this lull in earnings is temporary and they can probably convince Roche of that. Take a look at insider sales of ILMN over the past 8 years - that should tell you something about what they’re thinking.

      I don't know if the company is worth more on its own, but i believe its worth more than $44.5/share and i think Roche believes that. I just hope the shareholders believe that.

    • If ILMN could go it alone and get share price into the $70s then why would they not fight off the offer and not worry about other bidders? you are saying this company is worth more on its own , who needs Roche? Or GE or anyone else... Long live the poison pill!

    • Interesting perspective. Thanks!

    • i agree.. you are nuts not locking in profit here

      will at least go down to 44

    • I believe I read ILMN will hold off reporting earnings until Roche can do some DD. curious to find out when they will make earnings public.

      I don't think one quarter of earnings is going to make or break the deal. ILMN was clear on their last CC that it would take a couple of quarters to absorb the increased throughput they've introduced into the market and to get a better idea of how the NIH budget falls out. Even with the NIH budget somewhat set - it still remains to be seen how sparingly researchers spend their dollars. And the ongoing government budget issues are still going to cloud the financial future of NIH. So we don't expect any good news this earnings release.

      Even if ILMN's current market is saturated there is elasticity in the price of sequencing. As ILMN lowers the cost and time to generate sequence more sequencing will get done. Researchers will sequence anything with a genome - and some of them - like Venter, will sequence "soups" full of genomes. So I see sequencing on the rise and being done by researchers that never sequenced in the past because of cost - these are new markets The use of sequencing for human diagnostics is more complicated than sequencing for research. Its gonna take time and money and expertise that a Siemens or a GE may not have or want to contribute. If no one buys ILMN this year I believe their PPS will be back in the $70s w/in a year. ILMN is the best game in town for sequencing, there is no competing technology close to being marketable, and the number of genomes sequenced each year is going up exponentially.

    • trollboy,

      You have the credibility of a gnat.

      Are you claiming that the next earnings report is not an event?

    • 1) I have neither pumped nor bashed ILMN.

      2) I have no ILMN position (yet), so i have nothing to "dump."

      3) Short of a shocking miss or beat, I would not expect ILMN shares to be impacted by the Q4 earnings release. ILMN shares are event driven from now on.

    • mazenatieh@sbcglobal.net mazenatieh Jan 30, 2012 2:59 PM Flag

      roche will not raise price more than $1 or $2 per share. 70 p/e rs rich enough as it is.

    • The 800 pound gorilla in the room is 4th qtr results to be released tomorrow by ILMN management. If those results suck (and I expect them to be lousy), ILMN share price will tank.

      Notice trollboy lindmeritage completely avoids the subject of actual ILMN results. I'm sure trollboy will claim ex-post facto that he predicted that ILMN would drop a few points due to near-term operating results.

      troolboy is simply a run of the mill pump-'n-dumper.

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