Roche has already announced a new alliance with SoftGenetics, but none of their behavior at this time is a reflection of the value of ILMN's value and science long term. Ilumina is still the gold standard and whether Roche returns or turns its attention to a patchwork of others should not be an investor's measure to determine whether to buy, sell, or hold. Global growth and the demand for more and more sophisticated analysis in the healthcare sciences community will continue to support ILMN's growth or its value for an acquisition by a large pharma or tech company. Roche is just one of many with similar reasons to own this technology. It certinly isn't the only one with the need or the capacity.
Roche will soon reveal their plan B and how they intend to compete head to head with Illumina. When the reality sets in that the ONLY bidder for ILMN is now a new and powerful competitor and they are NOT coming back to the bidding table ..where on earth do you think the shareprice will be? Youll be lucky if the buy-back keeps it above $30.
1. Roche never said will not come back. It has high interest in buying ILMN, otherwise will not increase the bid price once. 2. If the management has no confidence, it should have accepted the second offer. 3. If Roche has better plan to compete with ILMN, it would not offer ILMN.