I've only identified the replacement value for 40% of their (owned) stores. We can value the remaining 60% as a going concern.
Supervalu expects fiscal 2013 cash flow between $900-950 million. For simplicity, let's assume that the 60% of stores generate 60% of the cash flows.
$900 million x 60% = $540 million
The cash flow multiple for grocery store ranges between 6-8x. Assuming the low end of the range implies a value of:
$540 million x 6 = $3.2 billion
Total valuation of the stores = $5.3 billion for the owned stores + $3.2 billion for the 60% not owned = $8.5 billion
Add to that the value for the distribution business. Since I don't know how to value a distribution business, I'll refer to the SumZero article on September 26th that implies a value between $1.4-4.4 billion.
Even if we discount the low end by 50%, that's a value of $700 million.
Total value of SVU assets = $5.3B + $3.2B +$0.7B = $9.2B
Total liabilities of SVU = $6.1B debt + $1.0B pension obligations = $7.1B
Total equity = $2.1B
Equity per share = $2.1B / 212 million shares = $9.90 per share
To my original point, in my opinion, Cerberus and partners will most likely offer between $4.00-4.50 per share for SVU. That leaves $5.40-$5.90 per share ($9.90 value minus the $4.00-4.50 offer) of intrinsic value for them, up to $1.25 billion!