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SUPERVALU Inc. Message Board

  • queen_anne_22 queen_anne_22 Jan 15, 2013 3:53 PM Flag

    $4 Tender offer is almost guaranteed

    If you read the SEC filing, it is pretty clear that Cerebrus is going through with the tender offer. So you can buy for $3.50 and sell in the next 1-3 months to Cerebrus for $4. About 13% return in a short time. That is high return with low risk. For even higher return, albeit with higher risk, hold on to the shares and do not tender them. The new CEO and Cerebrus together will take SVU a lot higher than $4. As a bonus the shorts are going to be squeezed very hard and there are lots of them. I don't think we'll get higher than $4 in the short term. Shorts are the dumb money from now until the expiration of the tender offer.

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    • Not really.
      There are many big investors who can buy the shares and then tender them. So, at least over 70% of shares will be tendered. You are lucky if Symphony buys 1/2 of shares. 30% of your shares is for sure if you tender all of your shraes.
      So, don't tender all of your shares since the price usually drops after tender but recovers in a month. This way you have choice to sell some of your shares before tender is expired. This is all about strategy and dollar averaging. If you tender all your shares and 1/3 is accepted and price drops to $3 then you lose money.
      You have to convince yourself to hold some for long term since SVU goes above $4 in 3 months.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • From the filing...

      "...Symphony Investors will commence, within ten business days of January 10, 2013, a tender offer for up to 30% of the issued and outstanding common stock of the Company at a purchase price of $4.00 per share in cash (the "Tender Offer")."

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