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VMware, Inc. Message Board

  • ROBBCARPDM ROBBCARPDM Nov 8, 2007 4:44 PM Flag

    Concerned closed BELOW 50 DMA

    I have already heard that a stock closing below it 50 DMA on the first test is very very bad near term.

    The MMs and specialists can paint the tape on the close and that by failing to do so they are indicating that they are not done letting it fall.

    I have also heard that these events on higher than average volume is even worse.

    Can some knowledgeable lads comment please?

    Please do waste my time with hype of short bullshit. I really want some honest and well thoughtout opinions. I figure I have a bounce tommorrow to exit on? True?

    Thanks for the help

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    • Oddly enough, this is the first day where the selling volume actually exceeded the 21dma volume. I suspect it was also pretty close to the end of the 90 day lock up period insiders had, so I expect most of this was simple profit taking. You can't value this company using typical methods. I've been posting up that this company resembles GOOG when it first came out. The analysts were going nuts trying to apply old school valuations. It's a $700 stock now.

      BTW, I bought GOOG at $91 once I understood their revenue model. I ALMOST made a huge mistake and took profits at ~$150 just before earnings. I was listneing to the so called "experts" talk about how badly overvalued the company was. All it did was gap up $26 on earnings day and never looked back.

      VMW is having the same issues. I own it at $73, and yes, I expect it to be well into the triple digits by the time everyone understands what virtualization means to the future of computing, and how much of a lead VMW has in this space.

    • and have strong sell sentiment against 450.000$ of his own money.

      some one must be totally insane to do that.

    • Think that's a bad idea. One of the biggest issues pushing oil up, was the fear that Turkey was about to invade the Kurdish region of Iraq in order to take out the seperatists there that had been conducting attacks from there. Fortunately, we(the US) were able to convince them not to invade and that we would put a stop to the Kurdish seperatists whom were responsible for the raids/terrorist attacks/etc. against Turkish interests.

      Another issue that's settling down is Iraq, where General Patraeus's counterinsurgency strategy has completely altered the security situation to the extent that infrastructure and other reconstruction projects are able to be worked on and completed without the fear the fear of reprisal (against those who cooperate with the Iraqi government and/or coalition forces) or the once near-certainty that the projects will be sabatoged. Thus, Iraq will be able to pump and export its oil at a reliably high level.

      There are remaining unresolved issues, such as Iran, Chinese and Indian demand, refining bottlenecks, inflation, etc., but improvements in the Iraq situation will likely ease pressure on oil prices.

    • Two ways to look at this. The first is the way you described. The way I look at it is sure it closed at 91.88 during normall market hours. However in extended hours it closed at 92.50 which is ABOVE the 50 day moving avg. Extended hours is still the same day. The idea that if it closes under, at, or above the 50day moving average, one must not be so precise. Technical analysis must not be analyzed to the penny. It use to work that way but with all the recent players thatare in the market using tech analysis, manipulation exists to make people like you fear that the world is going to hell because price closed a few pennies below the 50 day moving avg. This stock is not over yet. Remember...BIDU and GOOG had the same sell offs not to long after there initial public offerings. The worst is near over. don't get shaken out. relax and enjoy the ride back up to 200+

      • 2 Replies to tradethebar
      • That was the suppose to be taken seriously was it??

        I mean....the whole AH most of the volume was below the close. At the very close. Someone buy 1500 shares and thats supposed to constitute technicals?? The reason you apply only during market hours is that the order flow is more decisive and meaningful. It is not AHs and no one uses it not even on earnings. All afterhours can be ignored. Except the half hour before the open and then again only on VOLUME.

        GOOG and BIDU etc.... had sell offs after the IPO. Correct and if you havent notice we havent had one yet. Two their growth rates were multiples times VMW.

      • we all read the same tech analysis books and they all say the same thing. MM knows about it and they are trumping moving averages and trend line more often than in the past.

        majority of retails investors place stops below certain moving averages, trend lines that are become common knowledge by almost everybody. no wonder most of the candles have a spike below those prices.

    • you got to check this one out. The stock has hardly been in the market for over 4 months. 50 day M/A is nothing for this stock. The stock is highly volatile, I would rather sell this stock, when all the tech stocks moving over close to their 52 week high.

      The stock mainly went down due to CSCO earnings, and guidance from their CEO. All the tech's went down, and stumbled. It was more of like a buying opportunity, than selling.

      Again, I just want to reiterate that this is a volatile stock, much more like when GOOG was in the 100's - 200's.
      If you remember FSLR was like in the 20's a year ago, and right now this gorilla is like over $220. The stocked moved over 800% in a year. I am looking to see this stock move in the $150-$170 range before the end of the year. This quarter is the biggest of the year for all the tech stocks.

      • 3 Replies to sanjo_jatt
      • I appreciate the response.

        This didnt go down on fooling your self.

        It gapped down long before CSCO report.

        I have made up my mind tonight. Game over.....I dont expect $50 but it will NOT see $170 in the next 12 months you are smoking dope.

        This is NOT a GOOG or a FSLR......the growth here isnt even half what they were at this stage.

        I precisely asked for no hype but what can I say....I asked for it on Yahoo message board so I have it coming.

        We may bounce to $93 tommorrow and I am out and gone until at least $70.....that is my fair valuation given the growth and the the P/E contractions you will see over the next 1-6 weeks across the sprectrum.

        What the SSEC it is totally capitulating.

        The reality was I knew the who credit story was long from over. And the fed started out faster than they did with the 87 problem.

        That said....they have communicate to the market they believe they are done. The market knows the problem will get even worse yet.....and that the fed is now behind the ball instead of infront of it.

        Today we got lucky......the shorts started covering on some financials.....

        Serious posts besides hype would be appreciated but right now I am leaning on selling my 5,000 shares tommmorrow or at the very worst buying puts as protection. Commnents?

      • "I am looking to see this stock move in the $150-$170 range before the end of the year. This quarter is the biggest of the year for all the tech stocks."

        What ??? you are funny !

        Keep pimping, and fcuk ur fellow longs. You know that you are the first one to hit the gates tomorrow at the open.

      • well said:)

72.97+0.20(+0.27%)Jul 28 4:02 PMEDT