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VMware, Inc. Message Board

  • hillmorgan46 hillmorgan46 Jan 24, 2011 12:33 PM Flag

    Forward P/E only about 44. VERY LOW.

    Growing very fast.

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    • This had been posted to a wrong place.


      My flow model for comparison with Microsoft could be something like this:

      Stocks---year 1---2---3---4---5---6---7---8---9---10---11---12---15---16---17---18---19---20---
      VMW------35%------32%-30%-29%-29%-27%-26%-26%-24%-22%-22%-20%-20%-18%-17%-14%-12%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-....
      MSFT-----10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-....

      • 3 Replies to hillmorgan46
      • The model is very sensitive, for two sets of exponentials over 17 years are involved.

        Proportionally, VMW's net cash should increase a lot faster.

        SCALED forward P/E for VMW is like 44/36.4*11^7 = 6 for Microsoft, the best reference available. CHEAP.

      • Those are enormously optimistic assumptions about VMW's growth, especially considering they have formidable competition in the pipeline. The odds are very much against it. And MSFT and INTC had monopolies. Only stocks like GOOG have been able to hold onto that kind of growth, but I can't even say GOOG will be growing over 20% in five years.

        Basically what you're saying is that VMW is one of the greatest companies in the history of capitalism.

        I disagree with you, but at least you know how you're betting and what you're expecting from such a premium valuation. You think the valuation is justified because you expect high, sustainable growth over 2 decades.

    • LMAO... this day gets better and better :)

    • I can't respond to PauI's posts because he is on ignore. I think that's why I responded to a different post. Sorry I called you retarded. We disagree, but you are not retarded.

    • Last year at this time.

      In earning release:"We expect annual 2010 revenue to be in the range of $2.45 and $2.55 billion, an increase of 21% to 26% from 2009.""

      The year of 2010 ended up most likely at over 40% (if the history of VMware easily beating estimates for 8 or so quarters will be continued).

      • 1 Reply to hillmorgan46
      • Ohh Please Hill, osu and his legions said the same vomit last year.. like I said before, they're going to keep their regurgitated frog vomit year after year.. quarter after quarter....

        Reality is, VMW's stock performance matched its growth last year, it will match its growth this year and the next. This year should be a banner year.

        Anyway, in a few hours we will know how we're doing :)

    • you should spin a female ID next round.. treat us to something different than this generic 26 male ... I mean it's really obvious Osu.

      You're the only a$$ I know who complains about getting 1 stars.. not to mention I had this verbatim conversation with you about Quarterly revenue just about 6 months ago .. LOL

      What a dunce you are.

    • A 44 FORWARD PE is not low. It is NEVER low, unless the company is growing above 50%. VMW is growing at less than 25% for 2011. Excellent growth, but it does not justify a forward PE of 44. If you are long, you are basically betting on the company guiding 2011 growth MUCH higher than current estimates.

      • 3 Replies to whbog
      • VMware is one of very very few companies which grow the fastest. VMware will grow 3 times faster than Microsft this year. VMware will probably grow 20% (on average) every year for next 10 years. VMW is no more expensive than MSFT, if we compare the two for their values, using a flow-like model.

        Last year at this time, the street expected a growth of about 25% for 2010, but ended up grown 40% for the year. This year should be over 30%, if not over 35%.

      • 2011 growth estimates are around 25% -- after having been raised by analysts several times in the last few months. If you are going to look at FORWARD PE, then you have to look at the numbers that make it. Nobody buys a growth stock for LAST YEAR'S growth rate. They buy it for NEXT YEAR'S and the LONG TERM growth rate. 2010 growth rates DO NOT MATTER ANYMORE. Q4 earnings DO NOT MATTER. Forward guidance is what matters. If you don't understand this, you are retarded.

      • ....now that you posted that drivel, how am I supposed to react to you? You continue to post erroneous data on VMW and you continue to selectively omit some key statistics for VMW.

        YOY Quarterly revenue growth is 46%, I believe that's before some differed revenue which should be realized this Q!

        YOY Earnings Growth is a staggering 121%

        But don't let facts bother you, just keep posting the same stupidity over and over again.

 
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