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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • newbiemike123 newbiemike123 Jan 13, 2013 5:10 PM Flag

    Let's just fast forward to 2018....

    and ATRS is magically at $30 pps. What is everyone here going to do? I would imagine 95% of the people on this board would sell at that price. Invest in the next amazing small cap biotech? Buy a house? Quit your day job? Retire on a beach?

    I am small retail so I will still be on the search for the next great 10 bagger. It will be hard finding an investment as great as a high reward, low risk as ATRS though. Companies like this come around only once every few years and since I missed out on AAPL, I'm happy as heck that I'm long on this rocketship!!

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    • Might be at 3.25 in 2018

    • You want to see where ATRS will be in two years? Check SRPT, how about 3 to 36pps. We will get there, I'm betting the ranch on it.

    • 2018??? I am looking forward to 2023 (unless an asteroid hits us in the meantime). Only weak hands would consider taking profits at the $30 that is certain in 2018. I am holding out for $120 or more which is a very realistic goal given my projections for 2022 and the best management in the solar system if not the galaxy. Gifted people, in other words.

      Some look at these one trick pony type scams, or are diverted by the fact that Dell and HP are up so far this year by 50 and 60% respectively. OK, but the absolute certainty and lack of risk easily justifies the modest loss we are privileged to enjoy. What does it mean in the eternity of time at our disposal and the huge rewards?

    • Look at ADXS. Advaxis. Great company. I agree this Antares is a home run.

    • $30 pps not enough for retire, may be i will buy a Audi R8 in the country i living now... you cannot imagine the car price here. A R8 will cost me $ 250k easy. I'm driving a VW CC 2.0 which cost me $85k...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • As we fast forward to 2018, below is what I believe to be a reasonable example of how story could play out along the way. Will there be stumbling blocks along the way? Sure. Will I nail each of the years, product-by-product? Heck no. Each time I revise my numbers, whether on individual products or a particular fiscal year, I try to be very conservative and look for revenues to shave off the top line. For example, I have excluded future milestone payments; accelerated HgH revenues after launch of 10mg dose, additional Anturol ROW partnerships; EU, South American, and other ROW partnerships in connection with OTREXUP; etc. I have also excluded revenues from the Pfizer OTC drug, as well as QS3-4, NestraGel, LibiGel. Like Paul Wotton and his team, I'd rather my estimates be understated, as it will help me be patient while the story unfolds.

      2012 -- $24M
      2013 -- $40M (67% increase)
      2014 -- $151M (277% increase)
      2015 -- $401M (165% increase)
      2016 -- $642.5M (60% increase)
      2017 -- $951M (48% increase)
      2018 $1B

      And here are the details:

      2012 Gross Revenues (excludes Pfizer and Teva milestone payments)
      $15M........HgH
      $8.25M.....Gelnique (will have better forecast after our next 10Q)
      $0.75M.....Elestrin

      $24M...2012 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues (also includes milestone payments from Watson and Daewoong)

      2013 Gross Revenues
      $17M...HgH (Teva's HgH for "big kids" included)
      $2M.....EpiPen device margins (Paul said the pre-launch orders will be large)
      $3M.....Vibex 2 (assuming FDA approval soon, this sure is taking a long time)
      $9M.....Gelnique (will have better forecast after our next 10Q)
      $1M.....Elestrin
      $8M.....OTREXUP (I'm still holding out hope for a late 2013 Q4 launch, U.S. sales only)

      $40M...2014 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues

      2014 Gross Revenues
      $18M......HgH global royalties and margin from device and component sales
      $2M........EpiPen device margins
      $5M........Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
      $10M......Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
      $1M........Elestrin royalties
      $115M......OTREXUP U.S. sales (continue to ramp up sales)

      $151M...2014 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues

      2015 Gross Revenues
      $20M......HgH global royalties and margin from device and component sales
      $4M........EpiPen U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
      $10M......Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
      $4.5M.....Pen2 royalties and margin from device sales (EU only in 2015)
      $11M......Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
      $1.5M.....Elestrin royalties
      $350M....OTREXUP U.S. sales (The new OTREXUP revenue projections that I posted a couple weeks ago are the primary reason for my revised revenues through 2018.)

      $401M...2015 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues

      2016 Gross Revenues
      $21M...........HgH global royalties and margin from device and compenent sales
      $20M...........EpiPen U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
      $12M...........Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
      $4.5M..........Pen1 royalties and margin from device sales
      $20M...........Pen2 U.S. & EU royalties and margin from device sales
      $13M...........Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
      $2M.............Elestrin royalties
      $400M.........OTREXUP U.S. sales
      $150M.........QST (begin ramp up to at least 7% market capture and 50/50 partnership)
      ??.................Pfizer OTC (p. 20 of investor's presentation, Paul stated the deal with is "significant")

      $642.5M....2016 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues

      2017 Gross Revenues
      $22M.........HgH global royalties and margin from device and component sales
      $25M.........EpiPen U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
      $17M.........Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
      $20M.........Pen1 royalties and margin from device sales
      $25M.........Pen2 U.S. & EU royalties and margin from device sales
      $15M.........Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
      $2M...........Elestrin royalties
      $425M.......OTREXUP U.S. sales
      $400M.......QST (completed ramp up to 7% and looking to gain more market share)
      ??...............QS3 (this proprietary product to be identified this year)
      $0..............QS4 (this proprietary product to be identified this year)
      ??..............Pfizer OTC
      ??..............NestraGel (I believe this asset has lost its value, but I can't see all the cards)
      ??..............LibiGel (same as above)
      ??..............Copaxone (I had to put this one in for Loko, though I haven't a clue whether there will be a sixth deal with Teva that will involve an Antares reconstituting injector for Copaxone)

      $951M.......2017 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues

      2018 Gross Revenues $1B

      Patience my fellow longs!

      I'm about an hour from boarding my flight for another business trip to South America and will be off the YMB for most of the week. So please do not take offense if I do not timely respond to your comments.

      Bsav88atty

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I am exiting at $24 a share in 2016 (The entire market for that matter) so I will not be here for all the EXTRA excitement. I might check in every once in a while just to see if Piece2frog is still dishing out his awesome commentary :)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • newbimike.
      By 2018 there will no longer be ATRS, it will be another ticker of a larger company.....

      • 2 Replies to rymankoly
      • Ryman, I tend to agree with you. There will be no ATRS symbol by 2018.
        Regards, Senior

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I would like to hope you are right. These long term projections, with added attestations about the remarkable certainty, are not credible. The reason people look for short term accomplishments coupled with long term POSSIBILITIES is that the longer you project into the future the greater the uncertainty. This is elementary. I hope for long term success, but do not EXPECT it. I can easily list possible events which could undermine all the years out happy talk, but that is not the point.

        An investment MUST offer short term attractions or the risk goes up exponentially. The expectation of a 25% return will not attract many to ATRS. The risk/return equation is not attractive enough. Besides future plans, the company MUST show progress with its current commercial activities. Solid progress now is as important as promises of breakthroughs in the future. Once a company has commercial operations it tends to be judged on its success with those and financial results are expected.

 
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