Since Feb 11 ATRS has been almost in free fall. It is surprising that it came to 3.38 despite holding around 3.7 on the worst of fiscal cliff sell-off late last year. The sell-off coincides with the 60 day period following the Otrexup NDA submission. It is clear that some investors interpreted the lack of press release by ATRS as if FDA notified ATRS of some deficiency. Those people thought that most FDA communication happens on day 60 and ATRS had one too. Even on this board some investors claimed that ATRS received a response and there was a "hang-up" with no confirmation from any source except their gut feeling (whogo). They missed the point that ATRS submitted the NDA right before holidays. According to FDA Dec is the busiest month in terms of NDA submissions. As a result of this backlog FDA ended up not responding to ATRS within 60 days.
NJsarasotaguy contacted Jack Howart, who confirmed that FDA hasn't responded anything to ATRS regarding Otrexup NDA.
I, myself, called Jack who confirmed that he is holding all his 506K shares and FDA's communication timeline (74 days) is not the same as the review timeline (60 days). Yes, we have a delay in FDA response considering their usual 60 day timeline, but, the official deadline is 74 days.
Once we receive the FDA response by Feb 26th; assuming it is an acceptance, all those who sold their shares based on misinterpretation of the lack of communication will pile back in. In such a case I would expect to see ATRS hit $4 very quickly.
On top of that acceptance of the NDA will put ATRS on the famous FDA calendar with the PDUFA date. There are a whole breed of speculators who invest in companies whose PDUFA dates are in sight, as they participate in the regular "run-up". These additional breed will push the stock price higher.
As the stock price is getting higher and higher we will see positive articles from SA, Motley etc., if not Jim Cramer
Furthermore momentum players will take notice as well as technical traders. Once NDA is accepted we may even see some brokerages revising up their price targets
As a "vicious cycle" of negative action (misinterpretation of no FDA communication causing a drop which damaged our technicals, which in turn brought in short sellers) brought ATRS from 4.3 to 3.3 in a matter of weeks we will see a "vicious cycle" of price shooting up.
I am holding 50K shares, and will add another 10K next week to take advantage of the sale as I have to wait for some funds to settle.
People who think that there were a hang-up in the Otrexup NDA will chase to establish their positions, at higher prices. Even if there is a hang-up communicated with the 74 day letter we know that it has to be a minor one; because, FDA rejects NDAs that has major deficiencies within 2 weeks of submission. Patience is the key with ATRS.
Much appreciate hb and shadow's insightful posts on this saturday night when you should be out on the town having fun , instead of nerding it up here like me...lol. I AM fascinated with the 'Jack Howorth mystery plot" .....why is he really here and why did he start his position while at PFE? Hopefully this next week will be fun , for a change! GLTA AGTG!
Next week will be the week of FDA communication, plus the RBC conference. 3.38 was the resistance before it broke to 5.5; now, it served as support last week. This week should be the bouncing week, hopefully to 3.8-3.9 area. Weekly chart looks severely oversold
Your summary and explanation is a far better point that I was trying to make on my other post, "Prediction". If one wants to dig,go back and look at the volume charts.Over the last two weeks,the Friday before the long weekend holiday and the Tuesday after the holiday did we see more volume traffic and it was of nothing significant.Take all this and put in the "fear" of something must be wrong with the FDA submittal and you have a very depressed stock. I for too thought 3.77 was etched in concrete in share price.It just goes to show how easily a low daily volume traded stock and be pushed around. If Jack succeeds in getting more institution buyers as he said in our phone conversation, and I think he will,then this will too be a thing of the past. So the humbled lesson for me these last two weeks here is, never think the "unthinkable" can not happen and always be prepared for the unpredictable.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Actually you can go to FINRA website RegSHO list, which shows the actual volume traded along with short volume for the day. The volume you see everywhere else includes the HFT trades (buying/selling back and forth) originated by the same entity. The actual volume traded on these high volume days never went above a million
Sentiment: Strong Buy
and this is for the newbies...
Jack Howarth told me that he started buying ATRS while he was at Pfizer. His last buy was for 86K shares all in the open market with his hard earned money (not through company granted options) in Nov 2012. He is not considered an insider from a SEC point of view so this purchase is not reported as an insider transaction. The subscription version of Bloomberg list Jack Howarth as a major holder, which you can see the 506K shares he accumulated.
It is always easy for a newbie to contact Jack and get your own confirmation if you don't believe my statements.
Sentiment: Strong Buy