I am hearing from many longs about missed opportunities elsewhere in the market due to the lack of performance of ATRS. For the record I am a long term investor looking out beyond three years and I specialize the small caps pharma companies. Although my major is not in finance, let me remind those who have not been in this equity long that is it beating the SP 500 over the last 5 years big time!! .
January 09 Sbare price .50 cents
January 10 Share price 1.00 ( 100% return )
Janaury 11 Share price 1.80 ( 80% return )
January 12 Share price 2.00 ( 11 % return )
January 13 Share price 4..00 ( 100% return )
Janaury 14 Share price ????? ( 8% return through 10/18 )
If the share price stays at 4.35 by year end our annualized return over the last 5 years is 59.8%!!!!!!
My point is many of you glass have empty investors are missing the bigger picture. We have not even rolled out our first solely controlled product to the market and the company has rewarded shareholders with 60% annualized returns over the last 5 years. 2014 will be our blow out year and although past performance does not always predict future returns you need to consider the following. We have an enhanced management team that continues to deliver on their promises. Our CEO has said 2014 will be the transformational year for the company. We are going to be knocking on doors in Janaury and we will turn cash flow positive thereby elminating then need for any future secondary offerings. Based on the business plan and managements past performance I am maintaining a big bet that the shareholders going long and strong will be rewarded big time! This is the largest holding in my portfolio and I will holding long through the QST rollout if we are not acquired.
Long and Strong ATRS!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree with your point of view, however, a great many of us were not as fortunate as you were to have purchased your shares (assuming you did) at .50, $1.00, $1.80 or even $2.00.
I would say that a majority purchased there shares in the $3.50 to $5.50 range.
WE have sat with the stock for over a year and have nothing to show for our patience while companies such as ACAD, HALO, OPK, KERX (all mentioned on this board several times) have flourished!
This does not even take into account the other companies we may have wanted to invest in which in my case that in my case have doubled, tripled or even quadrupled.
You say to be patient. WE HAVE!!!!
Now with the BIG annoucement of the approval of OXE. we finally went over $5.00 a share for approx. 1/2 hour.
The stock could not even make last years high when there was far less promising activites going on with the company.
Apparently there is something going on behind the scenes, which none of us are aware of, because there was absolutely no reason for the stock (other than the sell on the news) for the stock to drop all the way down to $4.26 a share from the high on the annoucement day!!!
To some it all up, unless you were the fortunate ones who purchased shares in 2008-9-10 but instead began purchasing share the last 1 1/2 years, the stock has not made anyone one red cent (unless you are a day trader which most of us are not).
Do you realize the frustration most of us are experiencing of having waited so long for the big announcement of the approval of OXE and NOT see the reward for our patience??????????????
My point is to have patience. Yes, I was able to get in cheaper then some, but I also believe that the growth trajectory will continue. Three years from now when we have successfully lanched OTREXUP and QST you will understand the power and rewards that can come from staying the course. It ATRS were to duplicate the last 5 years with 50% annualized returns would you hold or sell?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There is definitely merit in both sides of the argument. I bought my initial shares in mid-2012 and have added since then. I now have a large position, but like Jeffrey, I am barely above-even at this point, even with buying dips and occasionally selling part of my holdings at peaks. So I understand the frustration at the price action last week after approval.
On the other hand, it's clear that the stock has been a very good investment for those invested for several years. And I think it will also be a good investment going forward for all of us currently invested. It just requires some patience to sit out this year of little growth.
Jeffrey, one of the best replies I've seen in a while.
Its all about tiiming & the same is true whether your talking about management or investors. The early investors have done well & management's been given a lot of credit but what have they really accomplished? They got a drug approved, but how many other teams have done the same & seen their drugs fail to gain traction in the marketplace?
This is not to say Otrexup won't be a success, but at this point everything is still a hope & a prayer. Its not going to take but a few quarters to see whether this is a dog or a lion.
People on this board have been following this company for years. Some use timing strategies and some buy /hold strategies. Just about all have made money on this stock including myself. This is also not the first we witness the type of price behavior. Once it traded at about $2 and down to $1.50. Investors were making the same negative comments about the stock at that time. In about a month the stock recovered to over $2 and those who bought on the dip made a lot of money.
The investors who sold at $1.50 likely did not do their own research, so they did not understand the company or its product line. They were not sophisticated investors and they likely should not be investing in this sector anyway. Hindsight is 100 percent right while projections of future events are 50/50. I am sure that we can all site cases where stocks went up in value but there are many cases where stocks in this sector went down also.
Also, some investors mention other stocks in their effort to rotate funds or buyers into them and out of ATRS. This is just a game.
This is a good company based own my research. The RA market is about $16 billion, the company has about $80 million in cash/investments and no debt. It also has good management. The expectations for the revenue growth are not unrealistic considering the RA market potential. Otrexup is now approved, so there is a reduced risk to the company and it shareholders. The company has also hired people with experience in the RA markets and who had major success in marketing these types of drugs.
This company should not have a problem reaching a $150 million in peak sales in a $16 billion market with over 1.3 million patients. At $4000 per patient on a annual basis, 25000 patients would generate about $100 million for the company. Also, at $4000 HMOs and PPOs will prescribe Otrexup before they move patients to treatments that cost over $20,000.