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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • fda_approval_trading fda_approval_trading Nov 1, 2013 7:35 PM Flag

    ryman

    curious.
    you stated and expected, post FDA approval, that there would be a shakeout, flush out, and likely hit all the gaps even 3.96 (per ihub quote)... which is exactly what we did today.

    so, i assume you expected this 25% debacle from the high on the 14th?

    if so, you are mighty good.... getting a 25% haircut from FDA approval is more than just "sell on news"...

    curious to hear a bit more comments from you on why you expected such a major shakeout when we have not gotten much of any run up for more than a year...

    lastly, what else does your insights tell you re: this trend and rest of year

    tks

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    • Hi f_a_t
      I was able to predict ATRS (and AIS) moves very well in the past.
      Most were based on gaps filling which were always scary how accurate they were filled.
      On the other hand I never play my entire position (of course in hindsight I wish I did), but about 25-30% , since we all know examples of gaps that never filled.
      I always start buying back before the gaps were close (this time at 4.11), with orders going below the gaps.

      An even better example was ATRS running to $5.5, I thought the 3.35 gap won't get fill, but I still played it and it work OK.

      The main reason I thought we will pull back hard were the over optimistic predictions on the Yahoo board.
      There are many funds who know how to play this game and they will make sure to shake off any possible hand.
      Another reason was the large open interest of the November $5 calls, most of the time they will expire worthless and this is why I sold large amount of those calls, which I expect to expire worthless in 2 weeks, so I can book the money.

      The mood on this board is becoming very negative, like it was when ATRS pulled back to 3.4 from 5.5, so I expect us to start moving up again soon (but slowly and forget about Tappy $10 for at least 2.5 years....)

      Good Luck

    • his accuracy with the way the stock moves is quite scary... I'm using rymans price targets from that ihub post to manage my investment in ATRS

    • I saw Ryman's post and shuddered to read it, now the prophesy has come to pass and it even overshot on the downside. Beyond my depth of understanding to have come to this point. If I had thought this, I would have sold out my entire position and be sitting in cash waiting to buy back in.

      • 1 Reply to jrdelane
      • JR.. absolutely... you and your 110K and my 250K (225K at FDA decision day)... yes we would have... but that's life... who knew ..

        i expected a decline from $5 level to mid $4 and I FULLY was OK with this scenario...

        but what we got is a $1.2 drop from $5.15... wow.

        and don't think we are done going down... might see 3.7's before stabilizing in the high $3's waiting for next bit of PPS moving news/event... nothing like 14th for sure, but we do have few out there..

        my technician friends tell me that 3.7-3.9 is the buy area now... and sell when it hits 4.2-4.4 area in the weeks to come (if you want to sell that is)...

        my birth month Oct turned out to be good for few min and real ugly for the rest of month... what a beat down...

        of course as far as i know, fundamentals haven't changed, but we now really know that ATRS is regarded as a 'show me' stock now.... that means, PPS will stay depressed until mgmt actually delivers the thesis via data and revenue #s...

 
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