Been in this equity below 2.00pps and it has been good to me overall. I have never been concerned about the prospects of shareholder appreciation until the last few weeks. The studies coming on on Low-T with regard to men having increased chance of heart attacks and stokes are alarming. The FDA is now looking into this with more clincal work, but it does cast a shadow the QST program which is what I was planning to hold through due to the market size and potential revenue it would bring in for Antares.
Although I am sure Otrexup will be a success, this was not the main driver to where I feel the shareholder will benefit in price appreciation. QST is a potential game changer and I am simply not wiling to ride this thing out with the impending storm that could be coming once the FDA makes a final determination on the risks of Low T treatment. It also makes the bar for approval that much higher in my opinion. There are many more irons in the fire for Antares so the future is not bleak by any means. I just need to be 100% confident in the future to own biotech and I no longer have that level of confidence in this equity..
Not a short, but have liquidated all my holdings over the last few weeks and have moved on to what I feel are greener pastures. Good luck to all the longs here. It was a good ride. This will be my final post on this board.
ATRS can easily double from here on Otrexup alone. That said, testosterone therapy will continue to be around - people are reading too far into some of the data. Read the article by Jen Landa MD in the Huffington Post for a more balanced summary. As Koufax notes below, there is likely some overprescribing, and patients need to be properly selected and monitored. In fact QST is likely superior to the gels with a smoother peak to trough ratio and less transference issues.
affirmed. QST concept is in fact far superior to gels and patches. it's still in clinical trials so I would say in concept only for now. Once QST is approved by FDA, it will surely be one of the players in this market, w/o a doubt, no matter how the FDA comes out to put a bit more stringent controls in place.
low T will 'never' go away. why? as long as humans walk the earth and age/death is part of us, men will always want treatment for their age related or perceived livelihood issues.
when the dust settles, amongst many treatment choices now and in the future, QST will be one of the niche product for sure. again, the ceiling is high but expectation is modest. everything w/ ATRS has modest expectations against which management should be able to deliver
why do we care you are leaving?? My favorite statement was 100% confidence on BIOTECHS....You are a joke and good riddance! I'm sure you will be back saying how you changed your mind once we are over 6 this year!
OK hot shot. Put IDRA on your watch list and we shall see who the joke is over time. ATRS is a good investment so I am not a basher of ATRS and I think it will be north from these levels. I just think IDRA will do it faster and higher. I will send this one back at you in a year and we can compare notes!!!
I wish you luck all the same, however, I don't agree!
A large part of the problem is associated with over prescribing low T therapies. This trend will not negatively impact the clearly superior characteristics of QST relative to gels and patches. In fact, the object of the game for QST "is to take market share from the gels/patches and become the go to mode of therapy even ahead of traditional in clinic injections.
Even if a more thorough diagnosis mandate is implemented, the market will STILL be HUGE and will still expand Y/Y at a rapid pace and QST stands to be a BIG WINNER in the end!
Koufax & usma, are correct. Alot of men are having the symptoms to low-t but are not being tested for it, and are finding out they are in fact do not have low-t but doctors are prescribing it anyways without testing the patients correctly and that is dangerous. Of course anyone that does not in fact have low-t and is taking testosterone is asking for a heart attack or stroke. I think they should mandate certain testing, but this market has been around for a while, it's already huge and growing fast all is looking good for QST and the Antares family! Long & strong
Sentiment: Strong Buy
yes I agree. I fully expect more stringent mandate from FDA going forward (worst scenario) re: low T.
I think the smart investors will quickly see that this direction by FDA, if implemented, will favor QST over the existing gels and patches which currently hold multi-billion dollar market share.
the market size won't shrink... people will still want them.. MDs will still prescribe them... only difference is which delivery methodology gains/loses share of the pie.
I fully expect QST will be a winner. winner does not mean having majority of the pie. we will be just fine if we can take even 5-10% of the market in the coming years.
folks like mdr leaving ATRS for QST reason is plain stupid. leaving the stock itself after 100% gain is sensible and fine, but if that's the reason for leaving for 'greener pasture' which guarantees him 100%, then I think he's missing something in his brain.
like any one here cares about your leaving?
I am no tappy fan, but tappy's post yesterday shines a light on this quite well. at the end, ATRS will benefit regardless of FDA's conclusion re: testo implication on heart.
in any case, I find your statement " I just need to be 100% confident to own biotech" a BS statement. You think there is a 100% sure thing in bio land? you must be hallucinating. no such thing. otherwise, every soul would be in that stock(s).