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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • rymankoly rymankoly Feb 14, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Interesting form 4's from Wotton and Apple

    Looks like they missed their targets for full performance and only got 1/2 the amount of maximum shares
    (34K and 25K out of 68K/50K)
    This time they only sold the shares to cover tax liability and not the whole grant (which in this case is the right thing to do)

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    • If we are not bought about by May 14th 2014 I might donate all my shares

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to bazooka79dan
      • Stockdaug
        The only donations you made were to yourself haha

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • bazooka. interesting point even if you are only half serious...

        it has been my thesis that for a BO, there is only 2 scenarios.

        1. predictably ATRS valuation will only get more expensive as time passes as long as ATRS executes - Otrexup (will do just fine), QST clinicals, QSM, and others. As such, a potential buyer 'might' want to offer a BO earlier than later when it might be 2 or 3 times more costly.

        in this scenario, when would such a BO offer might happen? Well, after Otrexup was approved, there has to be a lot of credibility (or perceived credibility) of ATRS business model. So anytime after FDA approval, official launch in Jan '14, a BO offer would not be totally out of the question.

        As Bazooka mentions, an offer AFTER QST initial data and decision to proceed to clinical trials this year for a FDA filing next year in 2015, might also be a potential timeframe for a BO offer.

        2. if #1 does not occur, my sense is that it 'might' be when ATRS files QST to the FDA in 2015 (assuming all goes well). or possibly when FDA approves QST in 2016.. of course, by this time frame, valuation should be much higher if Otrexup and other TEVA related developments continue its positive path (at least 2 x valuation of today). Even though logically for small investors, buying a company cheaper makes more sense, BIG PHARMAS wait until the acquisitons are accretive or have solid rationalizations for a buy out to attain their shareholders' approval. This happens more often than not.

        Anyway, my sense of likelihood of #1 is small (20% or less). #2A (after FDA filing) is higher (50% or better). #2B (FDA approval or thereafter) is near 100%.

        I hope you are right though. I am quite fatigued of this management team - lack of communication more than lack of PR, planned sales (not as much as some of our posters but still...), and more than anything the action of this stock.

        in any case, i look forward to QST data and Q call in few weeks. Decision for me then

    • don't worry about them..... they will hit the motherload in April when they are bought out....... I guarantee it.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Code F:
      Payment of exercise price or tax
      liability using portion of securities
      received from the company

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