AFFY would never get 10% of market share. Maximum 3-5% which means 200M in sales. Only half are for AFFY that means 100M in revenues. But they are SPeNDING 150M year!,!
They could get 5% of market share and still be UNPROFITABLE!!!
KEY WORDS IN brackets <<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>>> So go, and READ BETWEEN THE LINES!
"Prior to joining Affymax, Ms. Smith held various positions at Merck & Co., Inc., including executive director, Medicare and healthcare systems strategy.
In that role, she was responsible for <<<<Medicare Part D customer strategy and for innovative healthcare delivery and contracting models for Merck’s chronic care product line>>>>>
. She also held management positions in public policy and government affairs. Prior to joining Merck, <<<<<she was a senior analyst, healthcare policy for the White House Office of Management and Budget.>>>>>>>
She earned her M.B.A. in finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in public policy from the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University and a B.A. in communications from the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
nh, Thanks! ---most the things/ what you said (with a cple of key exceptions) is stuff I know-----but you were able to put them together and mean something (and state it very clearly I might add)------Whether it turns out the way you say or not, it helps me scope out the risks and time frame possibilities near term.---Tks again for sharing your insight!
if you look at their balance sheet, they don't need to raise capital.Plus, they got around $60 million from Takeda, but from my experience, bio stocks will not waste a moment to raise capital when they can. Before they couldn't raise capital because it was non sense when they had none approval in hand. But now it's different. The drug is great and will generate a lot of money in the future. it's all my opinion. i am saying this because affy usually drops when there is some bad news coming. wall street crocks know everything before us.
Medicare wants to save money. They will lobby hard for the use of the drug. Medicare is in charge of these clinics. Without Medicare the clinics wouldn't exist. There are lots of expenses associated with dialysis, especially repeat patient visits and testing, besides the cost of the drug. Each time Amgen's drug is infused, Medicare is charged for a physician's visit. With AFFY's drug infusion far less frequently, there will be alot less billing. Now, it's possible that some of the dialysis centers would prefer to use Amgen's drug because they make more money through physicians' visits, but they're not in charge of the purse strings.
At last some one on this board that knows something.
My wife works in dialysis and she says exactly the same thing. " if medicare pays for it we will be using it ".
Given the cost savings --once a month treatment --and the pressure on medicare to save money -- there should be a huge incentive to switch over to AFFY.
Whats to prevent the switch to AFFY ---- is medicare locked into agreements with Amgen ?
Question is...is the dose pricing the same or is the overall the same? If they want to get in on DRG...they will need to show savings. Hospitals get 1 DRG payment no matter how much care they provide (some exceptions but generally). I work for a hospital in an admin role and you must show savings somewhere to get anyone's attention nowadays. It's better for the patient doesn't work anymore unless the drug is a carve out. I think they will do well eventually and took a small position today because I think it is oversold.