Thanks for the reply. I agree Amgen made a ton of money over the years, but they did it in a monopoly position and AFFY doesn't have that luxury. They won't even have a duopoly after this year. This market was a $2B annual market, but bundling has made that a $1.6B market and the level of price cuts AFFY needs to use to get their contracts makes it a $1.4B market. They have a $150M cost base so they need to get just about 10% share just to break even and that is not even factoring more price cuts when biosimilar competition comes into play. The only hope is a take out by a company that can eliminate the SG&A. That is not a buy thesis, but maybe it is enough to avoid a short. I don't think I would short AFFY, but I would be taking profits for sure.
I could be, but I could be dead right, time WILL tell, but it's your money (mine is off the table). I would welcome some evidence that supports your opinion. Brian was able to offer some supporting rationale and it helps everybody. Perhaps you or somebody else knows the M&A people at Takeda or has some insight into what Fresenius is thinking, I would say if you don't know that any investment in AFFY is a guess at best.