BREAKING-RECALL WAS TOO EARLY......TAKEDA TAKEOVER AFFY SURVIVE
Affymax, Inc (NASDAQ:AFFY) has been in news only for its negatives. A couple of months ago, on February 25, 2013, the company declared that it would withdraw its sole drug in the market, Omontys. Omontys is an injection of peginesatide which is utilized in the treatment of anemia. On March 18, 2013, the company announced one more adverse statement that it would lay off 75% of its total employee headcount. These strings of negative events culminated into panic across markets. The stock was hugely oversold, but after the string of negative events, majority of the investors sold off their stakes. Some are still holding on the stock; however, are losing their patience. However, the company offers an optimistic story of turnaround. AFFY is sitting on a huge pile of cash of around $100 Million and had a market capitalization of $51.11 Million on March 28, 2013. It is also said that the recall was made way too early as only 0.02% of the patients treated were facing fatal issues. This could also be because of measures which are not in control of the management like process of administration of Omontys or issues of hypersensitivity. With huge cash balance and decreased expenses (75% total employee lay off), the management could finance an investigation against the cases related to side-effects of Omontys. Moreover, Takeda, company with better prospects, if takes over AFFY, it could also mean a survival for AFFY.
History proves that many Drug Recall doesnot mean end of the road. Many drugs cameback in a strong way. It is too early to conclude and only Truth will prevail.
Truth in case of Omontys is
1. Only Multidose vials IV Omontys got into reactions...Only first time. Why not Subcuteneous ? Does the IV dosage was administered correct way and drug interaction still issue where Omontys not at fault.
2. Not in control of Management
3. Amgan is well known for dirty play in the market.
Very misleading Seeking Alpha article. Just three examples. 1. The author used Affy's 3rd Q 2012 10Q financial statements for cash value, and ignored Affy's March 18, 2013 8K Item 8.01 which disclosed just $15M net cash. 2. The author, in a reply to his article, admitted he had no knowledge whatsoever that Affy might seek bankruptcy protection. 3. The author did not disclose that Affy admitted that it was in breach of its collaboration agreement with Takeda. There are other examples of glaring omissions from the truth.
Buyout could happen, but for shareholders we would want to see O go back on the market and sales increasing to maximize share potential. Buyout would probably come in the low range, $8-10 imo.
Buyer would also get tax credits and AFFY has 90m cash.