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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

  • a_rajalonghorn a_rajalonghorn Apr 17, 2013 1:47 PM Flag

    Bold prediction ....

    Thus far, I have outlined my rational as to why I chose to invest in the company. There are A LOT of potential downsides and a very small glimmer of hope. That being said, here is my bold statement taking into account the events that transpired yesterday with AMGEN and their SEC probe.

    AFFY will not go bankrupt!

    The story on AMGEN yesterday proved that OMONTYS is a superior product, the only bad part about OMONTYS was that it was being managed by incompetent fools at AFFY. If Epogen/Arnsef was a superior product, the company would not have needed to bribed pharmacies to choose their product over OMONTYS. They would have let the clinical data speak for itself to the physicians. However, that was not the case. Physicians choose OMONTYS due to the convenience of the drug. This continual perpetuation of the propaganda by bashers on this message board saying its a killer drug are simply just that, propaganda.

    Virtually all drugs have the potential to cause allergic reactions and if not managed properly by the medical team, can lead to anaphylaxis and death. To make matters worse, even if some of these patients had been treated for anaphylaxis appropriately, they would have still died due to the nature of their disease.

    Dialysis patients are typically hyperkalemic (increased level of potassium) and thus their hearts are more likely to experience arrhythmia's. If the medication was given prior to dialysis with their potassium levels 5.5 mEq/L and were given epinephrine for anaphylaxis, they could experience SVT (supraventricular tachycardia where the patients HR is greater than 220 minus the patients age in years. They could also go into V-fib/V-tach, both of which are lethal rhythms.

    Anyways, these are risks associated with any medicine. The fact that TAKEDA was the one pulling the strings behind AFFY to have OMONTYS pulled from the market for allergic reactions in 0.2% of the patients, opens them up to litigation.

    TAKEDA will buy AFFY to cover their rear sides.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • FDA never requested the drug to be pulled from the market, AFFY and TAKEDA did a voluntary recall. AFFY took their company from a market cap of over $1 billion to less than 40 million in a matter of 2 months. TAKEDA will either pay to buy out AFFY or pay for the litigation that will stem from the SEC probes. Either way, TAKEDA will pay. Being an intelligent business though, TAKEDA will choose to go the "so perceived Noble route" by offering to buy out AFFY for a low ball bid. I do not expect TAKEDA to offer more than $4 per share due to nature of being misers but they will acquire AFFY.

      This is my guess, i could be WRONG and if so, I will be down a few grand. It will still be of no comparisons to the long investors that have lost significantly more than i have cared to wager. Please do your own due diligence and do not take my word or anyone else for that matter, when it comes to making investment decisions. AFFY is and currently remains a very high risk investment and you could potentially lose all of your investment.

      Sentiment: Hold

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