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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

  • a_rajalonghorn a_rajalonghorn Apr 23, 2013 10:29 PM Flag

    "Ahhh (short) Freakout" Part 5

    10. AFFY now has hired a restructuring firm. I wonder what they have been doing this entire time, could it be that they were restructuring, as that was the "game plan" this entire time. Yes, I believe it was their intention and they have accomplished their goals since their recall very effectively.

    11. Firing a CEO who was being paid over a million a year, plus a CFO for a company that does not need to be paid was brilliant. Also pay special attention to the "company wide restructuring", their options in the past 8 K filings have been bk or another avenue such as... you guessed it restructuring in order to sell itself. Of course this is my interpretation of the language in the 8 filings.

    12. I cant see the future but i am highly certain that a buyout is in the works as TAKEDA would be stupid to allow someone else to purchase the royalty agreement. An upfront payment of less that 300 million would be sufficient to buy AFFY outright and never pay a dime to anyone. In one year, they would be in the positive from the sales attributed to the sales of OMONTYS. This is the reason that in the past they did not market in JAPAN, even though they had approval but now renegotiated with AFFY for rights to market there and EU.

    P.S. AFFY is still a high risk investment, please don't invest money you can't afford to lose as this can still be an all/nothing investment. I personally have invested in the company and I am long.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Raj, is the drug approved in Japan or was that something that was to happen pending European approval? I realize this is all speculative due to the withdrawal in the U.S. market. I also find it of interest that no one has signed up to be lead plaintiff yet for these lawfirms, the deadline they keep reminding us is April 29. Maybe because they have to wait for the results of the investigation to find out was it the drug, the manufacturing process or the administration in the centers themselves.

      • 1 Reply to pbjorkl904
      • OMONTYS is actually not approved in Japan or EU yet. I misread the 8k statemtent and i apologize for that. They have applied for regulatory approval for both but there is no word thus far on approval. I'm still bullish on the stock and a few penny change is not a big deal .
        I think the results of investigation will be available within two months time frame and will benefit the share price. GL to all longs

        Sentiment: Hold

    • pablogolecruz Apr 26, 2013 11:40 AM Flag

      Takeda don't own AFFY - Institutions own it and the 5 million shares owned by small Investors. Takeda needs to buy a significant amount of AFFY to really be in on the action and leave the shorts out of shares to cover

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I appreciate you guys for taking the time to read my analysis. I believe that TAKEDA wants OMONTYS all for itself as it did manage to change the collaboration agreement to acquire rights to market in JAPAN and EU. OMONTYS has already been approved in JAPAN and EU i haven't heard about yet.
      Keep in mind that JAPAN, statistically, has the largest aging population in the world.

      When the heart starts to fail, it deprives the kidneys of Oxygenated blood, then comes the renin angiotension aldosterone system which causes the heart to work even harder to provide blood to the kidneys. This cyclical effect causes the heart to fail, which in turn makes the kidneys fail. Chronic Kidney Disease is an ever growing market worldwide due to people living longer, living unhealthier lives and diseases such as hypertension and diabetes affecting them like a Plague. This is a huge market and TAKEDA knows it.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Raj, excellent analysis plus the timing is perfect to send the BASHER in their black hole. I hate these fear mongering parasites for whining all the time with baseless and fabricated lies. Did you notice all three (godsake..., grey ..and pumper) actually the same came out one after another. Even though they promised earlier to never come back again.

      I think I am still not sure about is litigations AFFY will be facing in case these lawyers find a leading plaintiff.

      Guru, keep up the good and unbiased work.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to stuff24pk
      • stuff, Affy has worked within it's legal framework and has done nothing wrong. Pick any stock that hits a wall and shareholder lawsuits always follow, not by them but by greedy Law Firms. Most cases shareholders never get a penny after legal fees. Affy has Insurance to cover this litigation and is not worried.

      • Stuff, don't worry about the litigation. Another company had the same problem, but they didn't have the loser Orwin and their answer to them was that" they are trolling for clients". Nothing will ever come of these. They are just to scare weak minded people. I would not worry about them. I went to law school in England. I know how these blood suckers operate. There is zero merit for any lawsuits.

    • a-raj, doing a little bean counter drill tonight leads me to believe Takeda will offer $5.00 to $10.00 per share for AFFY which would satisfy the Vanguard Group and others? Also think another contender is waiting to place a bid for Omontys after Takeda kicks off the process, Amgen would be foolish to let this slip into the hands of Takeda regardless of their other legal Partnerships. Omontys under a different name and with the financial resources of Takeda, Amgen could see their Market Share drop from 75% to zero!

    • Raja, Very well laid out analysis. I commend you for that. This news to me is positive. The negative Orwin is out and there will not be any bankruptcy. His negative comments turned a nearly billion dollar company to a company valued at under 40m. I believe Takeda and the Affy BOD decided that enough is enough and had to get rid of him. O will come back, but under Takeda. Takeda will not want to pay a few hundred million in royalties to a company that it no longer needs. They will just buy the company out. I am still hopeful that it will be in the 8-12 pps. Still very cheap. They got a bargain because this Ceo was incompetent.

      • 2 Replies to foggiafc
      • Thank you. If you look through the 8 K filings of the past few months, they clearly outline that they were short on funds, had an inordinate amount of debt and if they were not able to restructure rapidly "to support a much smaller organization" then BK was their only option. Considering how rapidly they were able to do what they had intended, I am very pleased. It is all going according to plan and with this recent 8 K filing, the words Bankruptcy missing from the filing and the CLEAR use of the word restructuring multiple times; it is quite evident that they are progressing with the buy out.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • What I would really prefer is a massive runup on the speculation. As Affy is hinting it's not going bankrupt, there is a good chance for a huge runup before it settles in the 5-8 dollar range. I would not be surprized if it goes into the teens. Guess it's a waiting game now.

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