Just over a week ago without any fanfare Zacks upgraded Affy from a strong sell to a buy. Ask yourselves, what news was out there that suddenly made them change their mind. By all intents and purposes Affy was in a death spiral. It was a toxic stock. Yet suddenly these guys do a complete 180. Folks, let's face facts. We the public will always be last to know when there is news. These guys on Wall Street have a foot in every door and are privy to information much sooner then us. They knew the good news and informed us in a roundabout way as to not fall foul of insider information laws. The know the savvy investor will get it and act upon it. The volume last week says all. There is no BK. Affy, I believe is being bought out and we will know sometime this week. Hopefully later this week so that I can now load up. GLTA longs.
Fog: there is nothing to rely on "FLY ON THE WALLS", ZACKS and even some of the more genuine ones. they can always backtrack their statement, we need to do our own DD. In this instance, first of all I know AFFY very well atleast for the past 4+ years, I missed the boat when it went 7+ after the meeting, since I got stuck with my WAMU payments. I would not have bought in, if Affy management and operations stayed the same. I bought when they drove everyone out, the main one being Ann Marie Deluge (the moronic woman - CSO) Takeda would have really struggled with her.
I consider the driving out of AFFY management & redundant workforce was the MOST POSITIVE development in Affy's existence.
AFFY is not GOING BK, I can bet my farm there. Takeda will lend whatever is needed to take care of its existence, right now it is bare bone 10-20 MLN not a big money for keeping it afloat and not a Billion $ commitment. Liability exceeds a mere 10-20 MLN, once the Product launch occurs they can recover it too.
If the product does not get launched, they will have to write it off and as a creditor in line Takeda will take over the company. There too if someone offers to pay up more for AFFY patents (like AMGN), TAKEDA is screwed and won't get the patents. Even at these valuations of AFFY (If someone missed the boat @80-90 cents) I think it is a BUY, upto 2.50 without any news (35*2.5=87.5 MLN market cap) +/- 10-20 MLN for the excess liability over cash for their patent portfolio.
I still believe in the product and TAKEDAs capability to make it as a successful blockbuster.
If no announcement is made in the next few days/weeks, we should not sweat. That means they are planning as per their statements, including analyze the data, meeting with FDA, waiting to reintroduce the product.
then it is a matter of strictly following the April 10th 2013 Royalty & milestone agreements!
Zacks was smart enough to see the May 18th options open interest, and the fact that Takeda and Affymax were due to report earnings and make announcements shortly after its buy recommendation. The MMs and the dream of riches by retail longs with a penny stock down from a high of $27 per share provided the rest of the momentum. If retail was able to short AFFY, which it cannot do, then there might be something substantive to your musings other than a pump and dump which happened before from $1.92 to $4.10 per share.
Come on Godwin. Do you honestly think that Zacks is going to put their reputation on the line knowing that Affy earnings are going to suck?. Seriously you don't believe that do you. Even we longs knew the earnings will suck to kingdom come. They just withdrew their major drug on a voluntary basis. There was no income. Something substantial has happened and we will find out soon. Being short at this point is like playing Russian roulette. It never ends well.
Godwin, we shall see. One of us has got to be right, right?. My bet is on me and I'm sure your bet is on you. Let the games begin. One will be prancing around in a Maserati soon, and the other will be driving in disguise in a brand new Yugo from 1980.