All signs point to a buyout, as far as I am concerned. AFFY's massively stripped down website... Takeda still has Omontys displayed prominently on its website... The auction of AFFY's global assets taking place in June 2013... AFFY taking on TBG for restructuring purposes... The immediate firing of the AFFY CEO... The announcement that the board of directors plan to appoint a TBG representative to the CEO position...
I'm guessing that we will wake up one day in the very near future to find out that Takeda has gobbled up AFFY in a tender offer, and I predict that it will happen before the AFFY shareholder meeting taking place on June 6, 2013. This is looking more and more like an acquisition story with each passing day lately.
That would be the smart thing to do for Takeda, assuming that its intention is to re-release Omontys with revised labeling similar to what happened with American Regent's Venofer not too long ago. Takeda could buy out AFFY for a song and a dance right now, pay off the shareholders of AFFY in a cash-for-shares transaction, and then eliminate all of the need to pay out the milestone payments and the royalties to AFFY if Omontys is brought back to the market.
Either way, the next few weeks are going to be very interesting for this stock, indeed. I'm holding on to what I have already, and I'll be a buyer yet again if this recent weakness continues leading up to the AFFY shareholder meeting on June 6, 2013.
PS - With up to $185 million in commercial milestone payments and development milestone payments flowing potentially from Takeda to AFFY, not even including the percentage-based royalties based on sales if Omontys is re-released, I think that giving AFFY shareholders something in the area of $5.00/share would be a fantastic deal for Takeda. Keep in mind that there are only 37.4 million shares of AFFY that are outstanding right now. $5.00/share x 37.4 million shares = $187 million... I think that most shareholders of AFFY would accept that tender offer at this point in time. Takeda could make the one time payment, take full ownership of Omontys, and wash its hands of any obligations for future payments to AFFY shareholders.
Agree with your point, majority would have demanded btw 8-12 range, however during May 06-10 trading the entire float churned and there was a huge accumulation btw 1.80-1.95 range of over 45 MLN shares, this is NOT a retail buy.
Just to deceive SEC's eye, during the current week it was a slow down and they did do any exciting stuff. So I believe TAKEDA has enough voting shares with that group, if they make a tender offer they will get enough voting shares we just need to follow the lead.
I'm still expecting 8-10, but due to this event, I'll have to accept whatever comes in.