AFFY at $1.50 per share suggests that AFFY longs are quite optimistic that O is returning to market very soon both to the US and worldwide. Moreover, AFFY longs agree Takeda milestone/royalties are going to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars . What indicia/evidence can AFFY longs identify to justify their optimism? I cannot say. I have not seen any other than AFFY long "Say So" or blue sky cheer leading.
Here are verifiable/valid reasons I do not share the AFFY longs' optimism:
-O's PEARL study proved O was unsafe for CKD patients not on dialysis.
- Takeda long ago decided not to market O in Japan.
- Takeda withdrew O's EMA MAA. At the time it withdrew it, the EMA was of the provisional opinion that O would not have been approved because its benefits did not outweigh its risks.
- Fresenius CC suggests Takeda still does not know the root cause of O's safety problems, and will not find out anytime soon.
-Takeda does not project any O revenue for its FY 2013 or beyond.
-Takeda has not issued any press to verify its intent to return O to market, or to project any time frame to do so.
-All manufacturing contracts for O have been terminated, and O's manufacture takes long lead times.
- Takeda removed O as one of its core products on its website.
-Takeda shut down O's own website.
-O has a limited market - just CKD patients on dialysis.
-O has a damaged reputation due to negative perceptions about O's patient safety.
-O has plenty of competition from FDA approved ESAs for CKD patients generally [not just those on dialysis] with many years of use and proven patient safety profiles: [Epogen/Aranesp/Procrit]
-O's once a month convenience factor (lost on CKD dialysis patients infused 3x week) will be even more seriously undermined when Roche's Mircera, dosed once every 3 to 4 weeks, enters the US market in mid2014.
-The major dialysis centers, Fresenius and DaVita, have signed multi-year contracts for Amgen's ESAs.
-AFFY insiders are selling.
-TBG warns AFFY may go BK
Look for yourself godwinpeak... Liar
In February 2006, we granted an exclusive license to Takeda for development and commercialization of OMONTYS in Japan. In December 2011, Takeda announced that it had decided not to commercialize OMONTYS in Japan. We and Takeda have explored other options for the commercialization rights for OMONTYS in the Japanese market, including potentially licensing it to a third party. If Takeda or its licensee is successful in clinical development and regulatory milestones, we are eligible to receive contingent payments from Takeda which aggregate up to $33.0 million relating to the Japan renal program and $5 million for a third indication that neither we or Takeda is pursuing. Per the terms of the Amendment, the Japan agreement was terminated.
As a lawer i would say... Foei foei
What I said was true. Long ago, Decemer 2011, Takeda decided not to commercialize O in its home country Japan. Now all you AFFY longs are betting that after O killed patients and gutted AFFY, Takeda now wants to market killer O here in the US.
O yeah almost forgot this... As a result of the Amendment, Takeda assumed full responsibility for OMONTYS, including the ongoing recall and investigation of OMONTYS as well as any subsequent decisions as to whether the product may be subject to reintroduction if Takeda is able to complete the investigation and address the safety concerns to the satisfaction of the FDA. With the transfer of responsibilities and the NDA, Takeda is responsible for continuing the investigation but there can be no assurance as to when and if a solution will be identified.
" Takeda assumed full responsibility for OMONTYS, " incluing lawsuits...
Out of the 16 you are telling lies or misleding in 10. And out of the 6 left 3 are of no meaning... But hey you had another great day. Must have been fun waisting your time and life this way. Gltu. Liar.
I see a range of .78-27.78 on yahoo. The question is whether shorts can ride it down to .78 again before some blockbuster news come from Affymax. What's your take on that GWP? I respect both shorts and longs opinions. Thanks.
GWP, with all due respect. Your posts are only wasting your time. You've made your point and if AE couldn't cause a massive sell off with his recent SA article, your relentless posts won't move the ticker either. We're not looking for an affy Good Samaritan to help save us longs. We all know what we're in for and we just need to wait it out. Have you ever thought about using your time to take on some pro bono cases, that would be better use of your time.
Thanks, but not worried. I don't even watch my position. Only stop is a trailing sell (and it's MUCH higher than current pps FYI) I'll wait for Takeda to do the rest. GLTA
Sentiment: Strong Buy