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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

  • godwinpeak godwinpeak Sep 12, 2013 5:49 PM Flag

    Enthusiasm for an AFFY Long Position

    AFFY at $1.50 per share suggests that AFFY longs are quite optimistic that O is returning to market very soon both to the US and worldwide. Moreover, AFFY longs agree Takeda milestone/royalties are going to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars . What indicia/evidence can AFFY longs identify to justify their optimism? I cannot say. I have not seen any other than AFFY long "Say So" or blue sky cheer leading.

    Here are verifiable/valid reasons I do not share the AFFY longs' optimism:

    -O's PEARL study proved O was unsafe for CKD patients not on dialysis.
    - Takeda long ago decided not to market O in Japan.
    - Takeda withdrew O's EMA MAA. At the time it withdrew it, the EMA was of the provisional opinion that O would not have been approved because its benefits did not outweigh its risks.
    - Fresenius CC suggests Takeda still does not know the root cause of O's safety problems, and will not find out anytime soon.
    -Takeda does not project any O revenue for its FY 2013 or beyond.
    -Takeda has not issued any press to verify its intent to return O to market, or to project any time frame to do so.
    -All manufacturing contracts for O have been terminated, and O's manufacture takes long lead times.
    - Takeda removed O as one of its core products on its website.
    -Takeda shut down O's own website.
    -O has a limited market - just CKD patients on dialysis.
    -O has a damaged reputation due to negative perceptions about O's patient safety.
    -O has plenty of competition from FDA approved ESAs for CKD patients generally [not just those on dialysis] with many years of use and proven patient safety profiles: [Epogen/Aranesp/Procrit]
    -O's once a month convenience factor (lost on CKD dialysis patients infused 3x week) will be even more seriously undermined when Roche's Mircera, dosed once every 3 to 4 weeks, enters the US market in mid2014.
    -The major dialysis centers, Fresenius and DaVita, have signed multi-year contracts for Amgen's ESAs.
    -AFFY insiders are selling.
    -TBG warns AFFY may go BK

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