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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Sep 14, 2013 1:31 PM Flag

    Omonty's reintroduction, scenarios to consider!

    It is again comes to first day reaction.

    Those who had this drug and worked never had issues and everything was under control, efficacy is proven.

    Since 300 MLN $ per year AFFY setup is dismantled, Takeda can bring back the Drug to the market place for patients who were responding well to the treatment.

    That means 25000 patients could be taken back on this drug. This provides a 60 MLN Annual revenue stream for Takeda. Unsure whether the Hyper sensitivity was caused for those who took Grunflo like killer drugs at Frensius centers.

    They will add additional black box warnings to ensure their liability is minimised.

    Takeda will ensure thorough Quality control and manufacturing of the drug. I would anticipate an announcement soon to this effect. I would presume Takeda will manufacture the Drug on its own plant rather than giving it to third parties due to quality concerns.

    Since AFFY shareholders receives Royalties based on the Sale volume, we should not be worried about the Leg work Takeda does in this effort.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Does it really mean "25000 patients could be taken back on this drug"? The FDA already required AFFY to have a black box warning for analphylaxis in October 2012, and still the deaths/serious anaphylaxis continued. What plant to manufacture O? Why didn't Takeda take assignment from AFFY of O's manufacturing contracts and AFFY instead paid millions to cancel O's manufacture? Why does jagan expect any announcement soon when Takeda has removed O as one of its core products on its website and shut down O's own website? What Takeda legwork? All jagan blue sky and cheer leading.

    • If Takeda is looking for an excellent manufacturer which understands the criticality of QC then Takeda may do well to approach Biovectra, Inc., a wholly owned entity of Questcor, about manufacturing O. This in turn may lead to Questcor developing some business arrangements with Takeda that would blow off the proverbial doors with increased Acthar revenues and profits. Takeda, witnessing first hand Questcor's potential then could offer $200 pps in 2015 (1H) and some stock. This looks so good on paper and is so doable . Someone is going to see the big picture and catch on. Jim / PS: Anabanana_83, How is that for some moderate enthusiasm? (reserved smile)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • najinaji Sep 14, 2013 1:43 PM Flag

      60 MLN annual revenue ! gosh.. is it only this much.. oh oh.. that means only 6 Mln for Affy shareholders..

      • 1 Reply to najinaji
      • It is 15-21% on Sales Revenue.

        Which is almost 10 MLN income for AFFY from aayone upon reintroduction at the minimum, which almost 25 cents per share, with a future revenue increase as they add new patients.

        Look at ARNA, how many prescriptions they wrote for the Obesity drug and what is their revenue?

        Takeda withdraw the Drug even for those patients for whom there was no issue, on the premise, that it might have something to do with the Manufacturing of the Drug or product contamination.

        If they did not find any issue of contamination then it is good to go for the existing patients.

        As for as shorts there are many fools, look at those 100's of millions shorted shares and the other mobile operator who was purchased by AT &T recently.

        In Affy's instance their most probable gain is 50-75 cents, the loss with a word of reintroduction will be at least $6-7 minimum.

        GLTA LONGS!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I must say Jagan, I do enjoy your unbridled enthusiasm.

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