IMHO The most likely scenario is AFFY seeking either a Chapter 7 liquidation or a Chapter 11 reorganization. I do not believe O is returning to market anytime soon. In the long run, Takeda may, in fact, decide to remarket O, but that will occur only after Takeda has conducted further tests and reaffirmed O's safety profile. [Takeda might even take some steps to reformulate O to make it safer and safe for CKD patients generally, but that is entirely pure speculation on my part.] IMHO O will not return to market soon enough for AFFY longs to profit from their investment.
Since AFFY's bankruptcy seems the most likely alternative, the question is when? AFFY's wind down of operations, termination of all employees and auctioning of tangible property gives AFFY more time than it had before. Based on the prior cash burn rate, I originally estimated AFFY's bankruptcy to occur about June 6, 2013. AFFY's winding down of operations has reduced its cash burn. Being optimistic, I estimate AFFY could survive perhaps another six months from now before bankruptcy is filed [to Dec 2013]. Besides Takeda's control of O, AFFY's main problem appears to be its vexing lawsuits. Nobody, IMHO, will want to buy the entity O because all of the litigation headaches and liability will go along with an AFFY shareholder buyout. A bankrupt AFFY solves that problem. Anybody who buys a reorganized AFFY, or its assets out of a bankruptcy sale, does not get the litigation problems. In either event, current AFFY shareholders would receive little or no benefit.
If AFFY sold its interests in O outside of bankruptcy, the sale would expose insiders to litigation challenging fairness or adequacy of consideration. Also, the sales proceeds would necessarily need to remain within AFFY and not distributed to shareholders until all of the litigation claims were finalized. Again, this scenario does not seem to benefit current shareholders.
Takeda buyout of AFFY? Yeah. Right. As a matter of financial fact, Takeda benefits from an AFFY bankruptcy for the many reasons stated in my prior post on the matter when Maxdad was touting the ersatz Takeda buyout. By the by, AFFY longs have pumped AFFY buyouts from Roche, Amgen and Fresenius, et al. I call it the AFFY buyer du jour.