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Life Time Fitness Inc Message Board

  • ntack5 ntack5 Jan 28, 2008 1:10 PM Flag

    The case against LTM

    The growth story is dead. They have over built. All the rich neighborhoods alread have a ton of fitness options and there is no growth overseas. The economy is heading into a recession and the first thing people will cut is discretionary spending, i.e., gym membership. People are also moving away from fitness clubs and getting more into outdoor exercise - biking, hiking, running, walking - to spend more time with family rather than stick their kids into a dirty child care center and try to become supermodels in some gym. Membership appears to be dropping off as well. "Health" clubs are a great place to pick up viruses and disease.

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    • I have little knowledge about stocks and investments, so can you guys help me out with this: is it normal for a CEO to exercise such a massive stock option only two years after the company goes public? From what I know about options, it seems like he got his $40 mil because it got too high too quick and wanted to cash in.

      Is that right?

    • Lifetime has a lot of growth left in it. There may be a lot of them in your particular area but the rest of the country is wide open.

      I've heard this bearish case against Lifetime and have to say that you need to go listen to their last 3 quarters of conference calls.
      John Adair

    • The growth story is dead? Are you kidding me? I am in LTM's most saturated market of Mpls/St. Paul. There are 25 LTM's here and they are still packed. Since there are only 45 LTM's throughout the rest of the country, I'd say that LTM hasn't even begun to realize it's potential. If you live in a place with a current temperature of -13 degrees and a wind chill of -40 you don't have an option to run, bike, hike or walk anywhere exept from your car to the gym. Who needs overseas growth when LTM could easily expand to over 300 gyms in the US over the next 10 years.

    • Disclaimer: I do not have a position in this stock and I actually like Lifetime.

      I am in the Mpls/St. Paul market and have been a member for over seven years. For the first time, the clubs have not been overcrowded during the New Year rush. Levels haven't picked up that much since last fall. Very, very unusual.

      Very unusual for this to happen. I can only wonder if places like Anytime are picking up the New Years resolution crowd. LA Fitness does not have a big enough presence to cause this.

      I am concerned that the pricing structure is getting too high for many. Lifetime is moving the local clubs up market in the tiering system.

      • 1 Reply to shakopcool
      • Hmmmmm......Which club do you go to? I couldn't disagree with you more. I've been to Plymouth, St. Louis Park, Moore Lake and White Bear Lake in the last month and all busier than ever. I don't agree that Anytime is having a significant impact on LTM. Anytime and Snap are in a different demographic than Lifetime. They are really not that much cheaper either. Anytime and Snap generally run between $35-$40 vs. LTM's $50-$55 at the low-mid level clubs. I'm at Plymouth paying $52. Not bad for getting free fitness classes, sauna, hot tub, lap pools, basketball, racquetball and most importantly day care for families in addition to what you get at Anytime or Snap. I'd say the extra 50 cents a day is well worth it for the average user.

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