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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

  • investor4242 investor4242 Feb 27, 2004 3:31 PM Flag

    why is this stock going down?

    Just invested in ORI lately. Fundamentals look solid. Good management. Good diversity of insurance businesses to reduce variability of normal insurance business cyles. Good record of earnings and dividend growth. Looks to me that this stock is fairly valued at about $26.00 on forward earnings estimates.

    What am I missing?

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    • You are kidding, right? I just bought this stock a few weeks ago. Pivot point,reistance,pullback? You are not talking about investing in stocks are you? You would be much better off at the racetrack. You will never make money in the stock market trading and speculating short term like that. You are wasting your time and I hope not too much of your money.

    • I meant 24.50 is NOW resistance!

    • hope you plan on holding for a long, long time!24.50 is pivot point which is not resistance, which would be your chance to break even if it gets there.For longs not in denial looking for dividend, IMH looks good on a pullback.

    • Bottom line here is that if you bought ORI in 1993 and held, the company has given you around $1.00 in market value for every $1.00 of retained earnings plus a decent dividend that is paid every quarter, every year. Stock is a share of ownership in a living,breathing corporation, not a mark on a chart.I bought the stock recently at $24.50 and plan to hold for a long time unless there is a significant change in this business that would change my opinion of this company.

    • As one of our baseball announcers use to say,"NOW YOU CHUNKIN" ORI.Keep heading North.

    • 03/19/04 10:36:44 24.110 24.100 24.110 300
      03/19/04 10:35:37 24.110 24.100 24.100 2,200
      03/19/04 10:33:37 24.130 24.130 24.130 1,200
      03/19/04 10:32:27 24.130 24.130 24.130 200
      03/19/04 10:29:30 24.150 24.150 24.150 800
      03/19/04 10:27:52 24.150 24.140 24.150 1,700
      03/19/04 10:26:06 24.120 24.110 24.110 1,700
      03/19/04 10:24:33 24.120 24.120 24.120 1,000
      03/19/04 10:23:26 24.110 24.110 24.110 100
      03/19/04 10:22:16 24.100 24.080 24.100 51,000
      03/19/04 10:20:28 24.100 24.060 24.060 2,200
      03/19/04 10:18:16 24.070 24.070 24.070 2,000
      03/19/04 10:15:16 24.070 24.030 24.030 500
      03/19/04 10:14:09 24.100 24.090 24.090 4,100
      03/19/04 10:12:07 24.100 24.080 24.100 1,300
      03/19/04 10:11:00 24.090 24.080 24.090 2,200
      03/19/04 10:09:49 24.080 24.060 24.080 3,000
      03/19/04 10:08:02 24.050 24.040 24.040 700
      03/19/04 10:06:51 24.050 24.040 24.050 1,300
      03/19/04 10:05:02 24.040 24.040 24.040 400
      03/19/04 10:03:48 24.040 24.000 24.040 1,400
      03/19/04 10:02:24 24.030 24.010 24.010 1,200
      03/19/04 10:00:52 24.000 23.980 23.990 700
      03/19/04 09:55:54 24.000 23.990 23.990 1,300
      03/19/04 09:54:59 24.000 24.000 24.000 4,600
      03/19/04 09:52:17 24.000 24.000 24.000 200
      03/19/04 09:51:29 23.990 23.960 23.990 300
      03/19/04 09:50:34 24.010 23.970 23.980 700
      03/19/04 09:49:14 24.010 24.000 24.000 2,200
      03/19/04 09:47:39 24.070 24.000 24.030 1,600
      03/19/04 09:45:30 24.090 24.090 24.090 600
      03/19/04 09:43:10 24.100 24.050 24.100 1,900
      03/19/04 09:39:08 24.060 24.060 24.060 600

    • would be the real test.

    • Its a new day and ORI is heading North. Spring is hear and the snow is melting,so whats that got to do with ORI?,nothing,just sounds refreshing. Time to buy more. Stay Long.EOM

    • Irenderit: Your comments lead me to believe that you are not particularly knowledgable of the property casualty insurance business.

      I hope others who review this message board before making a decision to buy ORI do not credit your statements too highly.

      The market is still hard, prices will be solid at least through 2004, and ORI is extremely well managed, though I admit can be pretty conservative in its statements and outlooks, but that is more a virtue than a problem in the long run.

      Buy ORI while its undervalued, for a solid long term return on your investment.

    • So which is it? You "made a profit" and you "know when to cut my losses" in adjoining sentences. Pretty slick!

      Come on, you're not fooling anyone. As I strongly suspected the last time we discussed this, you -- of course -- bought because of the split and special dividend. Thirty seconds with pencil and paper show this cannot possibly have been a worthwhile adventure for you. If you bought 100 shares and got $100 in the special dividend, minus $15 for taxes and $25 in the round-trip commissions, that's $60. So you would have had to buy ORI on a split-adjusted basis for 60 cents more a share than you sold at $24.45. Maybe you did, maybe you didn't. Whatever, a trivial outcome either positive or negative. Not even worth the time you spend posting here when you have so many other short-term positions to keep up with!

      Unlike others, however, I don't mind that you post. It helps show why the stock is flat -- negative sentiment by people who have just enough information to be dangerous. People on this board are asking why the pattern -- well, there's your answer.

      ORI is 13% off its all-time high. How this is so unusual to people is a mystery to me -- in fact, if I didn't know more about this company I might even consider that too close to its all-time high. But in fact there is such a thing as short-term mispricing in the market and this is a great case. ORI is an insurance company, folks -- evaluate it like one. The conclusion continues as before: Strong Buy.

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ORI
19.21+0.14(+0.73%)Aug 25 4:01 PMEDT